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Tag Archives: Monetary Policy

Our over-reliance on monetary policy is the problem

I am going to argue here that monetary policy is both less effective than fiscal policy, and that over-reliance on it unnecessarily politicizes monetary policy by putting unelected officials in too prominent an economic role. I would argue that monetary policy should never be the primary macro policy driver in any economy. Yet, when you look around the world it is in almost every advanced economy. It is certainly that way in the eurozone, where interest rates are negative and the...

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The Fed overtightened. Now it’s behind the curve. Recession awaits

Sorry for the alarmist post title. But the Fed has completely bottled it. I’ve been warning for some time that it could go this way. And now, we are in in the endgame. First, the Fed overtightened through 2018. Then, forced at gunpoint by financial markets into a retreat this year, it has been very slow to recognize the tightening financial conditions. Now, it is so far behind the curve that a major recession is  breathing down our necks. Let me put this all together below. And...

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Is There Really A Trade-Off Between Inflation And Unemployment? — Brian Romanchuk

Rather than attempt to explain what the mainly neoclassical economists are going on about, I want to step back and try to translate their debate into terms that would be understood by people who do not share the same assumptions. I am pretty sure that post-Keynesian economists have a lot to say about the topic as well, but once again, they tend to be discussing wonkish points that would elude an outsider.…I have an engineering background, and engineering is largely the science of...

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Why what economists are now saying about inflation matters

The US Personal Income and Outlays report for June 2019 came out this morning. It showed personal income increasing 0.4% and wages and salaries increasing 0.5% last month. These are good numbers. And in conjunction with a lot of other data we have seen recently, it should put to rest worries we have seen about an imminent recession. But, over the medium-term, it makes sense for economists to worry about a potential downturn, especially given the weakening growth we have seen in...

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Richard H Clarida — The Federal Reserve’s review of its monetary policy strategy, tools, and communication practices

I am delighted to be in Helsinki at this important conference on monetary policy and the future of Europe's monetary union. Today I would like to discuss the broad review of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy framework that my fellow policymakers and I are undertaking this year. We are examining the policy strategy, tools, and communication practices that we use to pursue our dual-mandate goals of maximum employment and price stability. In my remarks, I will describe the motivation for...

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The Fed’s Pickle

This is a follow-up to my subscriber post from earlier today on the US economy. For those of you who are not paying subscribers, let me summarize the post by saying I think the US economy is slowing but not in a recession. Nevertheless, I think we are likely to see a recession before the end of 2020. That’s actually my base case. The obvious questions regard policy responses, particularly the Fed’s. So I am writing this post to address some of that. 50 basis points won’t happen A...

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The World of Monetary Policy, According to Christine Lagarde— Carolyn Look

While Lagarde said MMT is no panacea, she didn’t reject it outright.“While it is tempting, when you look at the sort of mathematical modeling of it, and it seems to stand, there are big caveats about it, such as if the country is in a liquidity trap, such as if there is deflation. Well then, in those circumstances, it could possibly work for a short period of time probably, because interest rates stay low until such time when they start going up. And then it is a bit of a trap.”-- April 11,...

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Bill Mitchell — Reliance on monetary policy is mindless, ideological nonsense

It is Wednesday and so a less intensive blog post. Note how I no longer claim it will be shorter. The less intensive claim refers to how much research I have to put in to write the post. Apart from some beautiful music, the topic for today is yesterday’s RBA decision to cut interest rates to record low levels. The decision won’t save the economy from recession and highlights the sort of desperation that central bankers now face as governments shunt the responsibility of counterstabilisation...

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