Tag Archives: 2024

 – by New Deal democrat at the Bonddad Blog Prof. Menzie Chinn at Econbrowser makes the point that the yield curve is still inverted, and has not yet eclipsed the longest previous time between onset of such an inversion and a recession. So he believes the threat of recession is still on the table. And he’s correct about the yield curve, although it is getting very long in the tooth. In the past half century, the shortest time between a 10...

February consumer inflation: the tug of war between gasoline and shelter continues The Bonddad Blog  – by New Deal democrat Last month I described the trend in consumer inflation as an ongoing “tug of war” between energy and housing. Energy (mainly gasoline) peaked in June 2022 and made its low in June 2023, while housing, which peaked in early 2023, has been gradually disinflating since. That tug of war continued in February. Energy...

Scenes from the February jobs report: yes, the Household Survey really was recessionary  – by New Deal democrat Later this week we get a lot of interesting reports, including CPI tomorrow, retail sales on Thursday, and industrial production on Friday. In the meantime, let’s take a further look at some of the more noteworthy data from Friday’s employment report. In particular, as I wrote then, the Household Survey portion of that report was...

Weekly Indicators for March 4 – 8 at Seeking Alpha  – by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. Generally speaking, there is a demarcation between consumer-oriented data, which is in the main positive, and manufacturing-oriented data, which is mainly weak or negative. As usual, clicking over and reading will bring you up to the virtual moment on the economy, and reward me with a little lunch money. New...

February jobs report: the Household Survey is downright recessionary, while the Establishment Survey is decidedly mixed  – by New Deal democrat In the past few months, my focus has been on whether jobs gains are most consistent with a “soft landing,” i.e., no further deterioration, or whether deceleration is ongoing; and more specifically:  Whether there is further deceleration in jobs gains compared with the last 6 month average,...

I am late in getting this information up on Angry Bear. I should have checked fellow Michigander Charles Gaba’s site ACA Signups. Most of the time, Charles is way ahead of me on healthcare just like some of the others are from time to time. This is a rundown of what President Biden is going to tell us tonight. What he intends to offer US Citizens, with Congressional help, and with regard to healthcare. Keep this post as a marker and let’s see...

As told to us by Joyce Vance at Civil Discourse. This afternoon, the Supreme Court told us that it will hear Trump’s presidential immunity appeal. After sitting on it for two and a half weeks, they’ve issued a brief grant of certiorari, scheduling argument for the week of April 22. It’s a major disappointment for people who believe justice can be done and presidents are not above the law. And understand, this is not about politics. This is not...

Weekly Indicators for February 12 – 16 at Seeking Alpha  – by New Deal democrat I am back from my travels, so it’s time to catch up. There’s no significant economic news until tomorrow, but in the meantime I neglected to link to my weekly high frequency indicator wrap-up, which was posted at Seeking Alpha. As usual, if you haven’t already done so, clicking over and reading will bring you up to the virtual minute on the economic data and...

In Angry Bear’s commentary Looking at the Trump 2017 Tax Breaks, we examined exactly what the TCJA did for citizens. By the end of 2025, the TCJA would add to the deficit an ~$2.2 trillion. If extended, we can expect another $1.5 trillion. Special exempts were written into the bill so those (business interests) who benefited from the tax cuts would have the tax break into the 2030s. We beginning to or are exceeding the nations GDP. RI’s Emily...

Initial jobless claims confirmatory of continued expansion  – by New Deal democrat Initial claims continue at their very low level, declining -9,000 to 218,000 last week.  The four-week moving average rose 3,750 to 212,250. With the usual one-week lag, continuing claims declined -23,000 to 1.871 million: For forecasting purposes the YoY% change is more important. YoY weekly claims are down -0.9%, the 4 week moving average up 4.4%, and...