Tag Archives: 2024

 – by New Deal democrat The second point of economic data released this morning, retail sales, were also positive. On a nominal basis, retail sales in July rose 1.0%. After adjusting for inflation, they rose 0.8% to the highest level so far this year. The below graph norms both real retail sales (dark blue) and the similar measure of real personal consumption of goods (light blue) to 100 as of just before the pandemic: Since the end of...

FTC to Launch Inquiry into Higher Grocery Prices by Lucille Barilla @ Retail Wire FTC Chair Lina M. Khan highlighted the FTC’s recent work to stop corporate lawbreaking that raises prices for Americans, including uncovering evidence of corporate conduct that may raise the price of gas, grocery prices, working to lower the cost of many asthma inhalers to just $35 out-of-pocket, and making it easier for Americans to cancel online subscriptions...

Credit conditions in Q2 improved, and are typical of an economy having come *out* of a recession, not going in to one  – by New Deal democrat The Senior Loan Officer Survey, the premier quarterly measure of the loose- or tight-ness of bank lending, was published yesterday for Q2. And since lending conditions are a long leading indicator for the economy, and several of the metrics contained in this release have a good and lengthy track record,...

July jobs report: Establishment survey weak (but still positive), Household survey (even more) recessionary  – by New Deal democrat In the past few months, my focus has been on whether jobs gains are most consistent with a “soft landing,” i.e., no further deterioration, or whether deceleration is ongoing. In the last several months I have also pointed out that the Household Survey is probably understating growth because of its large undercount...

Repeat home sales were benign in May, forecast continued downtrend in shelter CPI in months ahead  – by New Deal democrat First, a brief administrative note: I am traveling this week, so posting is going to be sporadic and delayed. I’ll get to this morning’s JOLTS report later today or tomorrow morning. With that out of the way, let’s take a look at repeat home sales prices. To reiterate my focus, in the housing data I am looking at any...

Scientists have concluded a few years ago the Earth has entered a new climate state. This is one not seen in more than 100,000 years. Read elsewhere, that conclusion was part of a climate assessment report  published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2021. In 2024, we are threading in new temperature events which do not bode well for us. The Hottest Day in 125,000 Years? The Atlantic Monday was likely the hottest day on...

After Decades of Costly, Regressive, and Ineffective Tax Cuts, a New Course Is Needed, Center on Budget and Policy Priorities Part 2 Steps to Creating a Better Tax System (a given) Instead of doubling down on the flawed trickle-down path of the Bush and Trump tax cuts, there are opportunities to work toward a tax code that raises more needed revenues, is more progressive and equitable, and supports investments that make the economy work for...

 – by New Deal democrat Yesterday I discussed how virtually the entire issue of inflation remaining above the Fed’s target was the housing sector. Let me start today’s post where I left off yesterday: namely, that the net level of divergence between total headline inflation and shelter inflation of 1.15% is one of the highest such divergences in history, and the longest such big divergence. Here again is the graph: Today I want to discuss...

 – by New Deal democrat First, a programming note: I’ll post about retail sales later today. Consumer inflation in April continued essentially to be an interplay between shelter and gas prices, with a side helping of auto insurance and repairs. During late 2022 and early 2023, shelter was still accelerating or steady at a high rate of inflation, while gas prices were falling. Beginning in late 2023, the dynamic reversed, as shelter inflation...

Weekly Indicators for May 6 – 10 at Seeking Alpha  – by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. The majority of short leading and coincident indicators continue to show strength rather than weakness. This week it was commodity prices’ turn to show that the global economy is getting stronger. As usual, clicking over and reading will bring you up to the virtual moment as to the economic data, and reward me with...