Tag Archives: 2024

I have a very extreme opinion about what we can learn from the struggle between Russian and Ukraine for control of the Black Sea. First I think it is agreed that Ukraine basically has won the struggle so far. First Russia removed naval vessels from Sebastopol to Russia proper — this is huge news as it would have been at any time in the past 150 or so years. The ships were too vulnerable to anti-ship missiles and drones. This means that the...

Weekly Indicators for January 8 – 12 at Seeking Alpha  – by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. There are almost always a few interesting ripples in the pond. In the past month, notably there has been the sudden collapse in YoY tax withholding payments. I’m not too concerned yet, but if it goes on much longer, it would portend some serious employment weakness. Another such ripple, among the long leading...

Producer prices flat, commodities decline, confirming shelter as sole inflationary pressure  – by New Deal democrat Once again producer prices confirmed that the only significant problem in inflation is shelter. In December commodity prices declined -1.3%. For finished goods they declined -1.2%. Even producer prices for services were unchanged: On a YoY basis, commodity prices are down -3.2%, finished goods prices down -0.2%, and...

The good news on jobless claims continues  – by New Deal democrat The recent streak of very positive news on jobless claims continued this week. Initial claims declined -1,000 to 201,000. The four week moving average declined -250 to 207,750. With the usual one week delay, continuing claims declined -34,000 to 1.834 million. The first two are close to their post-pandemic lows of one year ago, and continuing claims are the lowest since the...

Weekly Indicators for January 1 – 5 at Seeking Alpha  – by New Deal democrat I forgot to post this over the weekend, so here it is now: my Weekly Indicators post up at Seeking Alpha. I’ll put a post up later taking a detailed look at some aspects of Friday’s employment report. Tags: 2024, Weekly Indicators for January 1 - 5...