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Tag Archives: coronavirus dashboard

Coronavirus dashboard for May 20

Coronavirus dashboard for May 20: signs of a peak in BA.2.12.1 in bellwether jurisdictions; is BA.4/BA.5 next? With no significant economic data today, let’s take a look at where the BA.2.12.1 COVID wave is. Nationwide cases (thin line below) have increased about 3.5x from their bottom of roughly 26,700 five weeks ago, to just over 100,000. Meanwhile, deaths (thick line) appear to still be in the process of making a bottom at under 300 per...

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Coronavirus dashboard for May 13: the virus will gradually become less lethal

Coronavirus dashboard for May 13: the virus will gradually become less lethal – because you can only die once, COVID-19 is still a pandemic and will gradually transition to an endemic. A year ago I thought that between nearly universal vaccinations and an increasing percentage of the population already infected, the virus would wane into a background nuisance by now. No more.  I am now thoroughly convinced that an unending series of variants...

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Coronavirus dashboard for April 27: Estimating the BA.2.12.1 wave

Coronavirus dashboard for April 27: Estimating the BA.2.12.1 wave The CDC updated its variant proportions data yesterday. BA.2.12.1 cases grew from 19% to 29% of all US cases:  and from 45% to 60% in NY and NJ. At the other end of the spectrum, BA.2.12.1 was only 9% of cases in the Pacific Northwest and 8% in the South Central region. BA.1 is down to only 2% of cases: Focusing on NY and NJ, NJ has had a little spurt in the...

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BA.2 wave

Coronavirus dashboard for March 28: I’ll take the “under” for the severity of any BA.2 wave Very few US States reported over the weekend. The decline in new cases has stalled at roughly 30,000 per day. Deaths are still declining, and are currently just below 800 per day. Since the BA.2 variant continues to generate new headlines, with just about everybody warning of a new wave in the US, let’s take a look at what actually happened in Europe...

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Coronavirus dashboard for March 18: the BA.2 variant behaves just like original Omicron

Coronavirus dashboard for March 18: the BA.2 variant behaves just like original Omicron In the last several days, the 7 day average of cases in the US has increased slightly from  30,700 to 32,700. The rate of decline w/w has decelerated to only 10%. Meanwhile, deaths have finally declined to slightly below 1000 at 995. The number of jurisdictions where cases increased week over week has increased to 7 or so in the past several days, compare...

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With seasonality over, it is clear that Omicron is responsible for increased layoffs

With seasonality over, it is clear that Omicron is responsible for increased layoffs With seasonality behind us, it is apparent that Omicron has resulted in increased layoffs. New claims declined 30,000 last week to 260,000 – still well above its pandemic low of 188,000 set early in December. The 4 week average of new claims increased 15,000 to 247,000: Continuing claims for jobless benefits rose for the second week in a row, by...

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How “mild” Omicron is depends upon how much you lag the data

Coronavirus dashboard for January 10: how “mild” Omicron is depends upon how much you lag the data So, how “mild” or not, is Omicron? It depends on whether you lag the data on hospitalizations and deaths or not.The original story out of South Africa was that Omicron was extremely mild. Despite a huge spike in infections, deaths barely budged. As Omicron took hold in Europe and the US, South Africa disappeared from the picture.  Which is too...

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Where we are now, and where we are probably going

Coronavirus dashboard for year-end 2021: the Graph of the Year, where we are now, and where we are probably going At the end of the 2nd year of the pandemic, a little self-assessment of what I got right and wrong, where we are and where we are probably going. The one thing I got wrong in a big way is explained by this Coronavirus Graph of the Year: I thought sure that once the effectiveness of the vaccines was widely known, opposition...

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Coronavirus dashboard for December 21: exponential spread is here

Coronavirus dashboard for December 21: exponential spread is here  As I warned you on Saturday, there might be some hooky-playing this week; and as I also said, that was “Omicron permitting.” Well, Omicron warrants an update today. Because exponential spread is underway especially in those parts of the country most exposed to international visitors. But first, in the spirit of leading indicators, let’s take a look at South Africa, where...

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The Biden Administration had better come up with a ‘Plan B’

Coronavirus dashboard for December 7: since further mass vaccination could only happen at gunpoint, the Biden Administration had better come up with a ‘Plan B, New Deal democrat No significant economic news today, so let’s catch up a little bit with Covid. There are still distortions in the 7 day average data, as States did data dumps of deaths and new cases throughout last week, after not reporting over the long Thanksgiving holiday. That...

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