Who would have thought? This is through August which included Federal unemployment benefits that have subsequently expired.Income is now weaker than it was at the time of this report: Without transfer receipts income continues to lag pre covid levels: This is likely to go down in September with expiring Federal benefits:
Read More »Consumer confidence, Richmond Fed, dollar index, CS house prices
Familiar pattern: Similar pattern- covid dip, bounce, fade: Remember all the talk about how all the money printing stuff after the crash and for covid, etc. was going to trash the $US, etc.?It’s not that easy to forecast: This is only through July. Seems to turn down in front of recessions, but the datais from two months back so by the time you see the index turn down the recessionis probably already well underway: Also, follow me on twitter@wbmosler I comment regularly on...
Read More »Services pmi, German survey, UK retail sales, oil, new home sales
Pretty much the whole world had a covid dip, bounce, and most recently a retreat as the economy appears to be rapidly decelerating as unemployment benefits expired and what’s left of the new fiscal spending is relatively small and keeps getting pushed out: Crude oil is another story. There was a covid dip as the drop in demand exceeded Saudi output, which caused them to lose control of output. Now that demand has recovered they are back in control of prices, and currently...
Read More »Housing starts, buying conditions for houses, fiscal policy forecast
Up a bit but at best moving sideways: Not looking good for gdp unless private sector deficit spending comes to the rescue: (hat tip Patrick Rien)
Read More »Consumer credit, jobless claims, commercial real estate index
Softening: Down more than expected. This is for the week ending Sep 4, as federal benefits expired. Lots of federal spending expiring: Commercial real estate index dipping:
Read More »New Hires, Economic Optimism index, German sentiment
New hires dropped even as job openings rose: Fading fast:
Read More »Rails, bank loans, unemployment rate
Looking weak: Nothing good happening here: Tiny glimmer of hope here? Lots more unemployment than the headline number:
Read More »Unemployment claims, trade, vehicle sales
Still way above the 200,000 pre covid levels.Makes me wonder why so many people are still losing jobs: Weaker imports is likely a sign of a weaker US consumer: And oil isn’t much of a factor anymore: This is seriously low as supply issues continue: Dried-Up Inventory Sinks U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales in August :: Wards Intelligence (informa.com) August’s annualized rate was tracking about one million units higher until the inventory-drain worsened enough that sales nosedived...
Read More »China service sector, Chicago pmi, consumer sentiment
Big slump here: Weakness here as well: Collapse in front of expiring federal unemployment benefits:
Read More »Unemployment claims, personal income, savings and consumption
This has now fallen back to pre covid levels and is likely to go lower after federal unemployment benefits expire: Expiring benefits after next week could leave a serious shortfall: Federal spending and transfer payments have managed to restore consumption to close to pre covid levels:
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