Tag Archives: GDP

Also tracing the weakness back to the oil capex collapse: Econintersect’s Economic Index declined and is barely positive – and still remains at the lowest value since the end of the Great Recession. The tracked sectors of the economy which showed growth were mostly offset by the sectors in contraction. Our economic index remains in a long term decline since late 2014. The Fed got this highlighted first part right: Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in...

Reads like we are already in recession… Recession Warnings May Not Come to Pass Jan 24 (WSJ) — Every U.S. recession since World War II has been foretold by sharp declines in industrial production, corporate profits and the stock market. Industrial production has declined in 10 of the past 12 months, and is now off nearly 2% from its peak in December 2014. Corporate profits peaked around the summer of 2014 and were off by nearly 5% as of the third quarter of last year. The Dow Jones...

Not long ago they blamed cold weather, now it was the warm weather. And this time not a word about the consumer not spending his gas savings…;) Holiday sales fall short of forecasts: NRF Jan 15 (CNBC) — The National Retail Federation said Friday that holiday sales increased 3 percent to $626.1 billion in November and December, falling short of the trade group’s forecast for 3.7 percent growth, as unseasonably warm weather and low prices weighed on results.The news came shortly after the...

Looks like the Fed hiked during a recession. Should make for interesting Congressional testimony… Maybe the hundreds of $ millions they spend on economic research isn’t enough???;) Sales remain at recession levels: Retail SalesHighlightsRetail sales proved disappointing in December, down 0.1 percent in a headline that is not skewed by vehicles or even that much by gasoline. Ex-auto sales also fell 0.1 percent while the core ex-auto ex-gas reading came in unchanged which is well below both...

Seems there’s no wisdom on the topic of ‘money’ anywhere of consequence: No ‘plan B’ for ECB despite still low inflation: Praet Jan 6 (Reuters) — Executive Board member Peter Praet said various factors, notably low oil prices and less buoyant emerging economies, meant it was taking longer to reach the goal of inflation of close to but below 2 percent. “We need to be attentive that this shifting horizon does not damage the credibility of the ECB,” he added. “There is no plan B, there is just...

Saudi discounts for February. Some reduced, some increased, so probably more same- prices fall until Saudi output hits its capacity:Zig zagging a lot recently, now back down to where they’ve been for a while: MBA Mortgage ApplicationsHighlightsMortgage application activity fell sharply in the two weeks ended January 1, down 15 percent for home purchases and down 37 percent for refinancing. Rates were steady in the period with the average 30-year mortgage for conforming balances ($417,000 or...

Down to only .7% for Q4 GDP forecast. JPM went down to 1% today as well. It’s a bit below the DC Fed’s 3%+ forecasts earlier in the year, when the lower price of oil was presumed to be an unambiguous positive for growth, further supported by the massive monetary stimulus of near 0 rates and trillions of QE. And a bit below their latest, similar forecasts of a couple of weeks ago when they judged the economy ‘solid’ and raised rates.

Bad: PMI Manufacturing IndexHighlightsThe manufacturing PMI has been consistently running warmer than other manufacturing surveys which helps put into context the disappointment of December’s slowing to 51.2, down from 52.8 in November. The final reading for December is 1 tenth lower than the mid-month flash. Near stagnation in new orders is a key negative in the report, one that points to further slowing for the headline index in coming readings. Orders are still growing but at their...

Up some this week. Been bouncing around a lot with looming Fed hike, regulation changes, etc. but mtg apps and home sales remain depressed:More bad here: Durable Goods OrdersHighlightsOctober was a rare good month for the factory sector, not November where manufacturing production in the industrial production report was no better than unchanged and now new orders were also unchanged. Excluding transportation, orders dipped into the minus column though just barely at minus 0.1...

This means ‘the swamp has been drained’ and falling production has eliminated the trapped oil in Cushing that caused WTI to be at a discount to Brent. In fact, Brent should trade at a discount to WTI when the shortage is fully eliminated, reflecting transportation costs to the US. This, however, does not mean there’s any kind of national shortage or that prices will go up as unlimited imports are continuously available at then current prices, and last I saw the Saudis are still discounting...