Tag Archives: Hot Topics

Retail sales faceplant; industrial production continues 16-month streak of weakness – by New Deal democrat Let’s take a look at two the big short leading and coincident indicators that were reported yesterday, respectively real retail sales and inducatrial production. Retail sales can be volatile monthly, and about once in a typical year they either faceplant or unexpectedly soar. Yesterday we got the facelpalnt. Retail sales declined...

Housing construction essentially stable in January  – by New Deal democrat I’m on the road, so I need to keep this brief, but fortunately I can give you the essence of this most important housing report with little difficulty. Mortgage rates have declined about 1% from their peak during the autumn, and are about equal to where they were one year ago: As a result, we should expect some improvement in the housing market from its worst...

Paranoia, passivity, and keeping reality at bay, INFIDEL753 Blog, Infidel753 This post is about psychology, not politics.  It may not look that way at first, but bear with me.] Many on the left feel a persistent anxiety about the danger of large-scale right-wing political violence.  Much of the right-wing population is heavily armed (though lately many urban liberals have been buying guns too, due to the ongoing menace of violent crime in...

Taken from MSN’s reprint of a Washington Post article. How can you not get excited about this? As a basketball small forward and guard, a thunker when trying to dunk the ball. I think this is exciting. How can you not like this? Iowa’s senior guard entered the night with 3,520 points, seven shy of Plum’s record. Caitlin Clark wasted no time, making a right-handed layup on the Hawkeyes’ first possession and a three-pointer on their second position...

Initial claims remain positive  – by New Deal democrat Initial jobless claims declined this week -8,000 to 212,000. The four week average rose 5,750 to 218,250. With the typical one-week lag, continuing claims rose 30,000 to 1.865 million: On the more important (for forecasting purposes) YoY basis, initial claims are down -1.9%. The four week average is up 5.4%. Continuing claims are up 10.3%: Initial claims indicate continued...

The long leading forecast for 2024 at Seeking Alpha  – by New Deal democrat A couple of times a year I update my long leading forecast. With the latest GDP and Senior Loan Officer Survey data, there is enough to take a look at what the next 12 months probably have in store. This article is up at Seeking Alpha.  Below, a brief Introduction of what New Deal democrat is featuring. As usual, a very well detailed article by NDd. The Long...

January 2024 consumer inflation: still a tug of war between gas and housing  – by New Deal democrat As it has been for going on two years, consumer inflation has boiled down to a contest of strength between energy (mainly gasoline), which peaked in June 2022 and roughed in June 2023, and housing, which peaked in early 2023 and has been gradually disinflating since. The headlines, as you presumably already know, are that total inflation rose...

but came in above Wall Street’s expectations, another sign that the Federal Reserve’s path to interest-rate cuts is far from settled. The Labor Department reported Tuesday that consumer prices rose 3.1% in January from a year earlier, versus a December gain of 3.4%. That marked the lowest reading since June. Inflation at 3.1% Reflects “Stubborn Pricing Pressure, Clouding Outlook for Fed Rate Cuts,” msn.com, WSJ article. Open Thread February 6...

This is supposed to be the experts bringing data to the public. Prestigious name coupled with a doctorate and Masters. Tied to exceptional universities. So what gives? Read on as this information was used in court and cited by a judge. — Two of the studies were cited by a federal judge in the case against the abortion pill. Publisher Retracts Three Abortion Studies, MedPage Today, Rachael Robertson February 8, 2024 Sage Journals...

Weekly Indicators for February 5 – 9 at Seeking Alpha  – by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. Most notable is that two of the long leading indicators – interest rates and corporate profits – have turned from very negative to at very least neutral, increasingly suggesting better economic news ahead. As usual, clicking over and reading will bring you up to the virtual moment as to the economy, and reward me...