Tag Archives: Hot Topics

Manufacturing and construction show softness to start the month  – by New Deal democrat As usual, the new month’s data starts out with information on manufacturing and construction. The ISM manufacturing index has been a good leading indicator in that sector for 75 years. The difference over time, especially the last 20 years, is that manufacturing makes up a smaller share of the total US economy. As a result, even though it has almost...

I have noticed Angry Bear picks up many readers when it features commentary by Steve Hutkins from “Save The Post Office.” Steve Hutkins, Mark Jamison, Save The Post Office and I go back a number of years. We would like to hear from USPS workers. Use an anonymous name if you are concerned about repercussions. I hope we win this battle. Evening collections end in Oregon and Washington: The threat to election mail and other risks Save the Post...

January personal income and spending: Goldilocks is knocking at the door  – by New Deal democrat Personal income and spending has become one of the two most important monthly reports I follow, because it nets out the impacts of higher interest rates and abating inflation due to the unlinking of the supply chain. Because real personal spending on services for the past 50 years has generally risen even during recessions, the more leading...

Initial claims still very positive, especially YoY  – by New Deal democrat Before I get to this morning’s personal income and spending report, let’s get the latest weekly update to jobless claims out of the way. New jobless claims rose 13,000 to 215,000, while the four-week moving average declined -3,000 to 212,500. Continuing claims, contrarily, rose 45,000 to 1.905 million, their second highest reading in over 2 years (but remains...

When we moved to Missouri in 1982, it was a purple state. In the last decade, it has become progressively more extreme right-wing. Now, in Missouri and more than 30 other states, each citizen is their own well regulated militia with the powers of judge, jury and executioner. Law-abiding citizens become collateral damage with no consequences. Sad.“The man accused of firing the first shots at the Kansas City Chiefs Super Bowl rally told authorities he...

February 28, 2024, Letters from an American, Prof. Heather Cox Richardson Past Open Thread February 21 2024 Is Late Economic Reporting the Cause of Bad Perceptions as New Deal democrat says? Angry Bear. Tags: Leap Year

The state of freight  – by New Deal democrat There’s no significant economic news today. Yesterday we did get durable goods orders, which are an official leading indicator. I don’t pay too much attention to them, because they are so volatile. Thus yesterday’s big -6.1% decline (blue in the graph below) is more likely than not just noise, particularly because “core” capital goods orders (red) increased 0.1%, and have been generally tending...

Michigan has always been in the hunt for new model manufacturing in Michigan. This one pitched by Michigan to GM is nothing new. Just another state buying a company by funding its stay. I can find my records on this, Michigan owes $billions to corporate Michigan. This all started with Governor Engler. Companies are used to it, so now they expect to get it. Read on . . . Automakers’ history of taking fat subsidies and overpromising job growth make...

Over at jabberwocking.com, Kevin Drum takes on Paul Krugman over his assertion that small-town America is aggrieved because the working-age men are more likely to be unemployed than their metropolitan counterparts. As usual, Kevin brings the charts and numbers to show that while Krugman isn’t wrong, the differences are small and don’t explain “white rural rage.” Kevin notes that while pay is less in rural areas, the difference is mostly compensated...

New home sales and YoY prices change little; expect sideways trend to follow similar recent trend in mortgage rates  – by New Deal democrat This week we conclude January’s housing market data with repeat sales prices tomorrow, and new single family home sales, which were reported this morning. Per my usual caveat, while new home sales is that they are the most leading of the housing metrics, they are noisy and heavily revised. Which was the...