Tag Archives: Hot Topics

This You Tube clip is about 25 minutes long which is an awfully long time for blog-readers to sit still and listen to someone talk. Yes, yes I know. I am not the most exciting writer out here either. I am sure I have caused a yawn or two and perhaps put some to sleep. Numbers, manufacturing, and supply chain are not exciting topics. The “Pres” does not come down and congratulate you for opening lots up for the shop, getting parts for those lots, and...

Two “fundamental” indicators for the American middle/working class and the economy  – by New Deal democrat This week is a little light on data, except for housing permits and starts (Tuesday) and existing home sales (Thursday), so let me catch up on a few other indicators. In particular, two of my favorite indicators are based on “fundamentals.” Basically, how much the average American is earning, and how much they are spending. Needless to...

Back before, municipal and state governments, pension funds, etc. mostly invested in financials of the manufacturing sort. Then, America was in the manufacturing business. An issuing manufacturer was contractually bound to hand over the return owed. The investors were entitled. If they didn’t get their entitle, it was, ‘”see you in court.” In 2023, in Biden v. Nebraska, six states are arguing that Biden’s proposed cancellation of certain student loan...

Weekly Indicators for April 10 -14 at Seeking Alpha  – by New Deal democrat My ‘Weekly Indicators’ post is up at Seeking Alpha. The slow drip-drip-drip of deceleration generally continues. Perhaps most significantly, YoY consumer spending as measured by Redbook sank to a new post-pandemic lockdown low of only +1.5%. But other coincident indicators in particular, like tax withholding, appear resilient. As usual, clicking over and reading...

Real manufacturing and trade sales probably rose to a new record high in February; may have declined in March  – by New Deal democrat Real manufacturing and trade sales is one of the 4 monthly coincident indicators most monitored by the NBER to determine whether the economy is in expansion or recession. Because the reporting of this series lags badly (by 2 months), I have developed several placeholders to estimate it on a more timely basis....

Positive revisions make for a good March industrial production report  – by New Deal democrat If retail sales for March were bad, industrial production (blue in the graph below) was at very least mixed to the upside. Total production increased +0.4%, and on top of that February was revised higher by +0.2%, and January was revised higher by +0.5%. The not so good news is that while manufacturing (red) was also revised higher by +0.5% for...

March real retail sales lay an egg, suggests downturn in nonfarm payrolls by the end of summer  – by New Deal democrat  After a quiet early part of the week, today we get a deluge of data: retail sales and industrial production for March, and total business sales for February. Because real total business sales are one of the 4 big coincident indicators tracked by the NBER, and because retail sales are about 1/3rd of the total, and industrial...

Initial claims continue to warrant yellow caution flag  – by New Deal democrat Initial jobless claims last week rose 11,000 to 239,000. The more important 4 week average rose 2,250 to 240,000. Continuing claims, with a one week delay, decreased 13,000 to 1,823,000: At this juncture the YoY change is more important, because increases of more than 10%, especially in the 4 week average, or monthly, are a yellow caution flag for recession, and...

AAR: March Rail Carloads and Intermodal Decreased Year-over-year by Calculated Risk on 4/07/2023 03:25:00 PM From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) Rail Time Indicators. Graphs and excerpts reprinted with permission by AAR to Bill McBride. Rail volumes today are being negatively influenced by broader economic trends, including slowdowns in industrial output, high inventory levels at many retailers, lower port activity, and...

I split these topics out from my other groupings of things found in my In-Box. I thought I would give it its own post as it considers environmental topics to include poverty, housing, nature, recycling, and business. All of which have an impact on the world we live in today. What is there is how people are thinking today and the results of their actions. I think I got it right. Maybe you think differently? Housing and Environment DIY ‘AirCrete’...