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Tag Archives: production

Dow Theory says transportation and production of goods should move in tandem

Dow Theory says transportation and production of goods should move in tandem; what is its message now?  – by New Deal democrat Partly because mid year data is now being completed, and partly to re-examine my forecasts, I’ve been conducting a top-to-bottom re-check of my metrics. One thing that seems very important is that, despite no real downturn in business at all, commodity prices have declined -9.6% in the past 12 months, one of the 4...

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The production side of the economy remained solid in March

The production side of the economy remained solid in March Industrial production, the King of Coincident Indicators, increased in March by 0.9%. February was also revised higher by 0.4%, but January was revised lower by the same percentage, for a wash. Manufacturing production also increased 0.9%. Total production thus made another new record high, while manufacturing is still below its record levels of 2007 and early 2008: On a YoY basis,...

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Production, layoffs, housing hit the positive trifecta in November

Production, layoffs, housing hit the positive trifecta in November, New Deal democrat We got a blizzard of November and December data this morning across all three – coincident, short leading, and long leading – timeframes: industrial production, jobless claims, and housing permits and starts. All three were positive. Let’s start with the King of Coincident Indicators, industrial production, which rose 0.5% in November. Manufacturing production...

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The producer portion of the economy continues to do well

The producer portion of the economy continues to do well First, a little blogging note. This week is light on data. House prices tomorrow, jobless claims Thursday, then a bunch of month end/beginning data on Friday. In other words, don’t be surprised if I take a day off. This morning the report on durable goods orders for August was released. Manufacturing is a leading sector of the economy, and new orders both for manufacturing and...

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Production and then distribution, or distribution and production together — Branko Milanovic

Must-read! Branko Milanovic sums up the fundamental issue affecting political economy as economics in relation to society. Neoclassical economic is like doing engineering with a total focus on efficiency and ignoring resilience. This approach views redundancy as inefficient. This is like eliminating the emergency brake on vehicles. An economy is the material life-support system for a society and its culture. It is the welfare and progress of the society that set the priorities....

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Why targeting productivity is a bad idea

Last week I attended a workshop entitled "Enhancing the Bank of England Toolkit," hosted by the Progressive Economy Forum. Presented at the workshop, and underpinning most of the debate, was this report from GFC Economics and Clearpoint Advisers, which was written for the Labour Party and first issued last June. The report was widely criticised at the time, as one of its authors ruefully observed in the introduction to the presentation. Nonetheless, the authors presented it unamended.The...

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More on productivity

The ONS's latest flash productivity estimate is rather good. Productivity in Quarter 3 2017 was up by 0.9% on the previous quarter. Here's what ONS has to say about it: Output per hour growth in Quarter 3 2017 was the result of a 0.4% increase in gross value added (GVA) (using the preliminary gross domestic product (GDP) estimate) accompanied by a 0.5% fall in total hours worked (using the latest Labour Force Survey data). This fall in total hours was driven primarily by a 0.5% fall in...

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UK inflation and the oil price

Inflation is back.Here is the change in the consumer price index (CPI) for January 2017, according to ONS: Well, this doesn't look too serious. CPI is barely reaching the Bank of England's target of 2%. It has been much higher for most of the last decade, and yet the Bank of England has kept interest rates at historic lows.But consumer price inflation - the prices that people pay for goods in the shops - is only one side of the equation. On the other side is producer price inflation (PPI),...

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A German spring

The sun is shining, the daffodils are flowering. Blossom is on the trees. The dark days of winter are behind us: in front of us lies a bright, glowing spring. Black zeros reap golden rewards, it seems.What is all this about? German industrial production has suddenly bounced back from recent falls, rising by 3.3% month-on-month in January 2016. The German statistical agency DEStatis reports that there are particularly strong performances in construction, capital and consumer goods production:...

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All Your Cars Are Belong Us

Did you know that most cars do nothing for 23 hours a day? Yes, they are totally idle. Sleeping safely in their owner's garage, or on his drive, or at her place of work, or in the station car park. Shocking, isn't it? What a terrible waste of assets. We should ensure that all these cars are DRIVEN. All the time. But there is a reason why all these cars are idle. Their owners are busy doing something else. Many people who drive to work, or to the station, do jobs that they love, that...

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