Tag Archives: UK

Analytical Considerations As Brexit is finalized we find considerable speculation about the likely consequences for the UK and EU economies after the end of January.  Because this event has no clear precedent, much of the speculation derives from political predilections and opinion without an analytical anchor.  Since private investment plays a major role in both growth and diversification of economies, beginning with the motivation to invest might provide that anchor. As...

Regular readers will know that I have been following the path of the British economy post-Referendum in 2016 to see whether the doomsday that the Remainers predicted was likely. It became colloquially known as ‘Project Fear’ as mainstream economists, so-called progressive economists who had their snout in the Labour Party as advisors (and we know where that took the Party), institutions like the Treasury and the Bank of England, all pumped out a sequence of terrible predictions about what...

 The AssertionEven before Corbyn launched the Labour Manifesto, the Institute of Fiscal Studies launched its critique of Labour tax policies, asserting that Labour’s proposed tax increases were not limited to the richest,:"The truth is of course that in the end corporation tax is paid by workers, customers or shareholders so would affect many in the population".  On the BBC Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell politely rejected the IFS critique, which in essence asserts that the...

At stake in December’s General Election in December is much more than just Brexit, though Brexit in the form proposed would be damaging enough.  It is a fundamental choice of the kind of society we want to develop.  In September, “Rethinking Britain: Policy Ideas for the Many”, was published, of which I was co-editor. The book brings together the...

Cabinet Secretary Mark Sedwill has in our view acted unlawfully in ‘advising’ or ‘ordering’ the Office for Budget Responsibility not to publish its report on technical changes in relation to its March 2019 fiscal and economic forecast, due out today.  By giving way, the OBR has helped to undermine its own independence. The only winner is the...

The Progressive Economy Forum today launched its new report, “The Great Brexit Wrench”, on the economic and political implications of Brexit. The report is by PRIME’s co-director Jeremy Smith, and looks at the background to and implications of Brexit from many different angles. It argues that there is no form of Brexit which will have a positive...

When even anti-EU tabloids say the Government's official position on Brexit is insincere, it is time to take it seriously. On Tuesday last week, The Sun reported that the European heads of government had concluded that Johnson's latest genius plan to create a "double border" on the island of Ireland wasn't a serious attempt to negotiate a Brexit deal. "They believe his insistence the dossier be kept secret is an effort to disguise the fact it is designed to set up a “blame game” with...

When even anti-EU tabloids say the Government's official position on Brexit is insincere, it is time to take it seriously. On Tuesday last week, The Sun reported that the European heads of government had concluded that Johnson's latest genius plan to create a "double border" on the island of Ireland wasn't a serious attempt to negotiate a Brexit deal. "They believe his insistence the dossier be kept secret is an effort to disguise the fact it is designed to set up a “blame game” with...

A short blog post today – being Wednesday. I am still catching up on things after being away for a few weeks. The British Institute of Fiscal Studies (IFS) offered its latest contribution to Project Fear this week with their claim that the fiscal response to a no-deal Brexit would “would send government debt to its highest level in more than half a century”. Sounds scary. Which, of course, was the intention. That is what Project Fear is about. Creating illusions of disaster to discipline...

So the UK Supreme Court (a bench of 11 judges) has delivered its judgment. Unaninmously. The prorogation of Parliament, based on the unlawful advice of Prime Minister Johnson, even if in form an act of the Queen, was null and void and of no effect.A couple of weeks ago, I concluded my post on The Rogue Prorogation and the English-Scottish judicial divide with these words:Whether the (UK) Supreme Court will be willing to go quite as far in making inferences of fact so...