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from Lars Syll So, certainly, both non-theorists and some theorists have little patience for research that displays mathematical ingenuity but has no value as social science. But defining this work exactly is impossible. This sort of work is like pornography quite simple to recognize when one sees it. Jeffrey Ely As researchers, we (mostly) want to try to understand and explain reality. How we do this differs between various disciplines and thought traditions. Creating a ‘map’ at a 1:1...

AB was off the internet. Just about the time I called our hardware computer company, we came back up again.

from Lars Syll Beyond the significant financial expenses required to conduct RCTs … critics have raised concerns about considerable opportunity costs associated with their privileged status in programme and policy assessment. These costs result from how an over-emphasis on experimental evaluations in evidence generation systematically undermines alternative research methods potentially better equipped to answer questions about causal mechanisms (or the channels by which interventions work...

I have been very alarmed by the risk of a Chinese (PRC) invasion of Taiwan (province of the RC). The main reason is that the most Xi Jin Ping announced that he has instructed his generals (and admirals) to be develope the capicto to invade by 2027 (the 30s anniversary of the return of Hong Kong to the PRC). This does not imply an invasion then. Landing craft and landing ships (please don’t ask me to explain or define the distinction) would...

The population of Argentina is suffering. The purchasing power of people who still have a job is down (a lot), and unemployment must have doubled (it was 5,7% in the last quarter of 2023) if it has not tripled. Less government spending, less consumer spending, and, no doubt, less private investment means that Argentina is experiencing an economic disaster which will scar the country for decades. Retail sales (volume): down around 20% while, at this moment, people will still be able to...

from Dean Baker The belief in free-market fundamentalism runs very deep. When I say that, I don’t mean that support for the concept runs deep, I mean the belief that we had been pursuing free-market policies in the years before the Trump and Biden presidency runs very deep. I was reminded of this fact in a New York Times column by Farah Stockman, touting the development of a new post-free-market fundamentalist paradigm. To be...

Should be back Sunday Night. He was pretty ill and I needed to be there to help him along. Bill

According to one well-known theory of electoral competition, voters care about policies, and candidates pick policies to maximize their appeal to voters.  This suggests that campaigns will try to appeal to the median voter.  There is obviously something to this model, and this year, as always, it is a safe bet that each side will, at least to an extent, focus on issues that tend to draw in cross-pressured voters.  The Democrats will focus on...

from Lars Syll As has become abundantly clear during the last couple of years, it is obvious that most mainstream economists seem to think that Modern Monetary Theory is something new that some wild heterodox economic cranks have come up with. That is actually very telling about the total lack of knowledge of their own discipline’s history these modern mainstream guys like Summers, Rogoff and Krugman have. New? Cranks? Reading one of the founders of neoclassical economics, Knut Wicksell,...

One of the policies with the greatest effect on poverty is the ild tax credit (expanded and made fully refundable by the American Reesue Plan). It caused a 44% reduction of child poverty. UNfortunately it was a tempory one year program (approptiate for stimulus bu not for an always needed prgram). It was not renewed and there was a huge increase in povertyThis is a hugely important policy issue (currently totally impossible with GOP control of the...