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One of the topics I’ve railed about many times during the decade and change in which I’ve been blogging is that society would be much better off if we forced people to pay the cost of negative externalities they impose on other people through their behavior. An obvious example would be making polluters pay for the cost that the pollution they emit inflicts on everyone else. But it turns out there are a lot of these behavioral externalities in healthcare. For...

If these numbers don’t turn up q2 gdp could be a lot worse than q1:

Real consumer spending revised up a bit, and not to forget that includes health care premiums, and q2 now looking a lot worse than previously expected: Highlights First-quarter GDP gets a small but much needed upgrade, now at a 1.2 percent rate of annualized growth which is nearly double the advance estimate. The gain is centered where it is best, in consumer spending where the rate did double to 0.6 percent. This is still slow but is an improvement with durable goods, at...

This very important paper “Moving to Opportunity” is well summarized by the discussant. Baby this town rips the bones from your back It’s a death trap, it’s a suicide rap We gotta get [them] out while [they]‘re young `Cause tramps like us, baby we were born to run [regressions] As noted by the discussant, the authors find that the benefits for young children of moving out of high poverty areas are very large. In contrast moving in ones teens helps girls but...

As previously discussed, seems to me it’s unlikely any of the trumped up expectations willcome to pass: McConnell: ‘I don’t know how we get to 50’ votes on ObamaCare repeal (The Hill) Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell says he doesn’t know how Senate Republicans are going to get enough votes to pass an ObamaCare replacement bill. “I don’t know how we get to 50 [votes] at the moment. But that’s the goal,” McConnell told Reuters in an interview Wednesday. McConnell...

Larger than expected and last month revised higher, indicating GDP was a bit lower than estimated, and weak sales matched with weak inventories don’t clear the shelves: Highlights A key early indication on the strength of second-quarter GDP is not favorable as the nation’s goods deficit widened $2.5 billion in April to $67.6 billion. Exports of goods continue to show weakness, down 0.9 percent in the month to $125.9 billion that show sharp declines for vehicles and consumer...

from Lars Syll So what’s wrong with the economy? … A 2002 study of United States fiscal policy by the economists Olivier Blanchard and Roberto Perotti found that ‘both increases in taxes and increases in government spending have a strong negative effect on private investment spending.’ They noted that this finding is ‘difficult to reconcile with Keynesian theory.’ Consistent with this, a more recent study of international data by the economists Alberto Alesina and Silvia Ardagna found...

from David Ruccio I continue to maintain that Congressional Republicans will stick with President Donald Trump until they get their favorite policies enacted—or until Trump’s missteps and declining popularity stand in the way of their getting what they want. And one of the things they want is tax reform—specifically, a cut in corporate taxes. Here’s the problem: U.S. corporations aren’t taxed too heavily. They’re taxed too little. As is clear from the chart above, corporate profits (as a...

Not good: Highlights Purchase applications for home mortgages fell a seasonally adjusted 1 percent in the May 19 week, but refinancing applications rose 11 percent from the previous week to the highest level since March. The drop in purchase applications follows a 3 percent decrease in the prior week and takes the year-on-year purchase index gain down 6 percentage points to 3 percent. Lower rates during the week gave a big boost to refinancing, and the refinancing share of...