Tag Archives: Uncategorized

Just finished reading “Bloodlands,” a book by Yale historian Timothy Snyder. It was published in 2010, but now has a lengthy afterword that discusses the book’s reception and ties the theme to current events. I was inspired to read this book because of events in Ukraine and I believe that I have a much better understanding of the current conflict from having read it.The bloodlands refers to the territory lying between central Poland and, roughly, the...

Hey, if you have not noticed, I have been doing most of the posting at Angry Bear, for myself, others, and for NDd on Angry Bear on various topics. NDd’s commentary I consider to be important and timely reporting on housing, jobs, Covid, the economy, etc. He is on the money each time. It is amazing to me, how the FED keeps trying to blow the economy up and it keeps on ticking. There are a lot of reasons for such a great economy, none of which...

That’s the headline for my latest piece in Independent Australia, responding to some appalling warmongering from the Nine papers. The main point is that a seaborne invasion of Taiwan would be doomed to failure. Everyone knows this, but all the important players have good reason to deny it. Share this:Like this:Like Loading...

That’s the title of my latest piece in Inside Story, expanding on this recent post. More over the fold Looking at recent news on global heating, it’s easy to give way to despair. After a brief slowdown during the lockdown phase of the Covid pandemic emissions of greenhouse gases have continued to rise. Even coal, which reached a plateau in 2013, bounced back as a result of the cutoff of Russian gas, hit an all-time high in 2022. But there are some bright spots. In particular,...

Lars Syll   Because statistical analyses need a causal skeleton to connect to the world, causality is not extra-statistical but instead is a logical antecedent of real-world inferences. Claims of random or “ignorable” or “unbiased” sampling or allocation are justified by causal actions to block (“control”) unwanted causal effects on the sample patterns. Without such actions of causal blocking, independence can only be treated as a subjective exchangeability assumption whose justification...

Open Thread March 3, 2023, Angry Bear, angrybearblog.com Tags: open thread

from Jamie Morgan If you think cryptocurrency is priapic capitalism’s latest attempt to dick you, you are probably not alone. In the last year or so most people’s perception of cryptocurrency has fallen about as far as it could. Opinion, much like the value and solvency of the assets, has plummeted from ‘the sky’s the limit’ to a soft sewage-landing. Great swathes of the population of the US and UK invested in cryptocurrency over the pandemic period. Since then, a swift spiral of...

Open thread Feb. 24, 2023 – Angry Bear (angrybearblog.com) Tags: open thread

I had a piece in The Guardian a couple of days ago (it’s over the fold) looking at the was the mainstream print and electronic media (mis)handled the debate over the decision to reduce tax concessions on earnings of superannuation balances in excess of $3m. The weight of argument was strongly on the government’s side, and the media commentariat seemed to have conceded that. But the finance lobby has hit back with a series of utterly ludicrous arguments which have nonetheless been given...

from Lars Syll If you can’t devise an experiment that answers your question in a world where anything goes, then the odds of generating useful results with a modest budget and nonexperimental survey data seem pretty slim. The description of an ideal experiment also helps you formulate causal questions precisely. The mechanics of an ideal experiment highlight the forces you’d like to manipulate and the factors you’d like to hold constant. Research questions that cannot be answered by...