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This paper explores dollar hegemony, emphasizing it is a fundamentally political economic phenomenon. Dollar hegemony rests on the economic, military, and international political power of the US and is manifested through market forces. The paper argues there have been two eras of dollar hegemony which were marked by different models. Dollar hegemony 1.0 corresponded to […]

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from Dean Baker With the United States data we have seen from the last few months, it’s fair to say that no one has a very good idea of where the economy is. At the most basic level, we have seen seven months of incredibly rapid job creation this year; the economy added 3.3 million jobs through July, along with two consecutive quarters of negative growth. We don’t have to join the Trumpers in calling this a recession, to be bothered by seeing two main economic indicators going in...

from Lars Syll The assumption of additivity and linearity means that the outcome variable is, in reality, linearly related to any predictors … and that if you have several predictors then their combined effect is best described by adding their effects together … This assumption is the most important because if it is not true then even if all other assumptions are met, your model is invalid because you have described it incorrectly. It’s a bit like calling your pet cat a dog: you can try...

from Peter Radford re-visiting economics’ basic concepts I am nothing if not annoying.  Allow me to elaborate. Let’s be basic. I mean really really basic. Our model world initially consists of two people, Adam and Eve.  I know, it’s been done before.  But we are economists.  What are we interested in?  What problems that Adam and Eve face do we want to study? Well, they need energy.  Human bodies, like all ordered structures, need flows of energy to maintain that structure.  The Second...

Sluggish growth but not recession, and no one giving credit to the Fed for hiking rates to increase the deficit and help keep it to a soft landing ;) At least so far it looks to me like a large Covid dip followed by a larger post-Covid bounce followed by a correction to prior levels: More signs of no recession yet:

from Lars Syll The weaknesses of social-scientific normativism are obvious. The basic assumptions refer to idealized action under pure maxims; no empirically substantive lawlike hypotheses can be derived from them. Either it is a question of analytic statements recast in deductive form or the conditions under which the hypotheses derived could be definitively falsified are excluded under ceteris paribus stipulations. Despite their reference to reality, the laws stated by pure economics...

Permits and starts have fallen off but are still above pre-Covid levels. This particular sector is presumed to be the target of Fed rate hikes. I suspect it is a temporary setback with buyers taking a wait and see attitude, as employment continues to grow: The post-Covid bounce continues with no sign of recession. US energy costs are relatively low which is helping drive the export component: Peter Coy’s NYT article today was about my assertion that rate hikes are adding...