Tag Archives: Uncategorized

Donald Trump is right and wrong about unemployment. He’s right that 20% unemployment is a f*cking shame and calls for action. A fact not acknowledged by (neoclassical) economists, who for Europe calculate ‘equilibrium’ unemployment (NAIRU, see this post by Lars Syll) in countries like Spain to be higher than 20%.These official (!) estimates are beyond ridiculous! Small wonder that people flock to politicians like Trump. Trump  is however wrong to state that USA unemployment is 20%....

Not good!The regional Feds are calling for higher discount lending rates even though borrowings are at 0! According to the Fed minutes from the discount rate meeting (different from the FOMC minutes), four of the Fed banks called for a hike in the discount rate. It’s the emergency rate at which banks could borrow directly from the Fed’s discount window – currently at 1%. This disclosure suggests that the Fed is becoming increasingly hawkish.

Way up and better than expected, but looks like it was all a large aircraft order and some cars. Another good headline April release also likely to reverse in May: Durable Goods OrdersHighlightsIndications on the factory sector have been mixed as is April’s durable goods report. The headline came in at a stronger-than-expected gain of 3.4 percent with March revised higher to a gain of 1.9 percent. Vehicles orders gave an important boost to April, up 2.9 percent as did the always volatile...

Not a word from the analysts when they were down 6% last week. But when up 5% this week expect lots of mentions… MBA Mortgage ApplicationsHighlightsPurchase applications for home mortgages revived in the May 20 week, increasing by 5 percent from the prior week, while refinancing activity managed to post a gain of 0.4 percent despite slightly higher rates. The average 30-year mortgage for conforming loans ($417,000 or less) was up 3 basis points to 3.85 percent. Purchase applications were 17...

From bad to worse:Another May reversal from a hopeful April gain: Richmond Fed Manufacturing IndexHighlightsThe Richmond Fed index fell a sharp 15 points in May to minus 1, adding further evidence of a serious slowdown in manufacturing activity as also indicated in last week’s Empire State and Philly Fed reports for May. Several of the survey’s key measures dropped steeply and went into contraction from previous strength, with shipments down 22 points from April to -8, backlog orders down...

Imports and exports down, as global trade continues to wind down. And the trade surplus remains yen friendly. However intervention will likely prevent any material yen appreciation: Rail Again Moves Deeper Into ContractionWeek 19 of 2016 shows same week total rail traffic (from same week one year ago) declined according to the Association of American Railroads (AAR) traffic data. Rolling averages continue moving deeper into contraction.The deceleration in the rail rolling averages began...

A bit higher than expected now been going sideways for almost a year: Existing Home Sales Euro Area current account surplus continues to zig zag it’s way higher: Euro Area Current AccountEurozone current account surplus came in at €32.3 billion in March of 2016 compared to an upwardly revised €11.2 billion surplus in the previous month. The surpluses in balances of goods (to €36.1 billion from €25.2 billion in February) and services (to €4.5 billion from €3.2 billion) widened while the...

Back into contraction after a blip up in April: Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook SurveyHighlightsAfter popping higher in March the Philly Fed index has been dead flat since, at minus 1.6 in April and now minus 1.8 for May to point to slight contraction in the Mid-Atlantic manufacturing sector.After jumping to 15.7 in March, new orders posted a zero in April followed now by minus 1.9 in May. And contraction in unfilled orders is deepening, at minus 8.8 vs minus 6.3 and minus 1.9 in the...

Another setback for those grasping for straws looking for housing to lead a recovery: MBA Mortgage Applications Gas prices up enough to hurt consumers, but not enough boost oil capex. You might say it’s in the ‘sour spot’:Again, for all practical purposes this IS full debt forgiveness, and something Greece has yet to recognize as such: IMF Proposal on Greece Sets Up Battle With Germany May 17 (WSJ) — A new IMF proposal goes far beyond what Greece’s eurozone creditors have said they are...

Still below the Fed’s target and ‘core’ moving down a bit year over year: Consumer Price Index Housing starts better than expected, permits up a bit and last month’s revised down a bit. And, of course, no house legally gets built without a prior permit and the chart isn’t looking promising: Housing Starts Still down and out:And E commerce retail sales growth is working its way lower as well:Note the % change this year vs last year chart, which takes out all the ‘seasonal’ factors,...