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ECRI’s WLI Growth Index Declines Again and Remains In Contraction ECRI’s WLI Growth Index which forecasts economic growth six months forward – declined and remains in negative territory. This index had spent 28 weeks in negative territory, then 15 weeks in positive territory – and now is in its tenth week in negative territory. Also discussed below is the coincident and lagging index which is in decline. Rail Week Ending 17 October 2015: Contraction Continues Week 41 of 2015 shows same...

You can see the spike just before the NY tax break expired, followed by prior, lower levels of growth. This is not a sign of an ‘acceleration’ in housing, or even a housing ‘recovery’:This hasn’t updated yet:

Paradox of thrift goes way back!It’s always an unspent income story…;) There is that scattereth, and yet increaseth; and there is that withholdeth more than is meet, but it tendeth to poverty.The liberal soul shall be made fat: and he that watereth shall be watered also himself.—Proverbs 11:24–25 My RT interview: US Manufacturing Production slows as doubts over rate hike grow

NFIB Small Business Optimism Index Highlights In a confirmation of strong levels of job openings in the JOLTS report, small businesses are reporting the most difficulty in finding qualified workers since 2007, pointing to the risk ahead of wage pressures. Boosted by employment, the small business optimism index inched 2 tenths higher in September to a slightly higher-than-expected 96.1. Plans to increase employment are also up, at their best level of the year, while capital outlay plans are...

Sales to inventory ratios still looking way high to me, as happens entering a recession: Wholesale Trade Highlights Wholesale inventories look to be pulling down on third-quarter GDP, up only 0.1 percent in August following a downwardly revised 0.3 percent decline in July. But relative to sales, which fell 1.0 percent in August and fell 0.3 percent in July, inventories are looking heavy. The stock-to-sales ratio rose to 1.31 in September from July’s 1.30. Inventories relative to...

Their price cuts reported yesterday indicate they’d like to pump more: Gap widening as previously suspected, even with lower oil prices: International Trade Highlights A surge in imports of new iPhones helped feed what was an unusually wide trade gap in August of $48.3 billion, well up from July’s revised $41.8 billion. But cell phones, at $2.1 billion, make up only a portion of the gap with a drop in exports the most salient factor. Exports were down nearly across the board...

Even the city is turning south: The post NY ISM index appeared first on The Center of the Universe.

Advancing the Frontiers of Heterodox Economics: Essays in Honor of Frederic S. Lee Edited by Tae-Hee Jo and Zdravka Todorova Series in the Routledge Advances in Heterodox Economics ISBN: 978-0-415-73031-0 (hardback), 358 pages, $160. August 2015, Routledge. (20% Discount code: FLR40) For more information visit:http://www .taylorandfrancis.com/books/details/9780415730310 Contents Foreword by Sheila C. Dow Foreword by John F. Henry Introduction: Frederic S. Lee’s contributions to heterodox...

Marx said that history does not repeat itself. But sometimes, history does. This may be particularly true in the domain of economics and economic knowledge. Economics is a complex subject. It is the study of a series of abstractions (markets, firms, governments) built upon abstractions (money) built upon abstractions (value), a great metaphysical muddle stacked up to the sky like a wobbly Jenga tower. At a simpler level, economics is the study of human behaviour, or as von Mises put it,...