August JOLTS report: the game of reverse musical chairs in the jobs market is ending – by New Deal democrat Since early this year I’ve been making the point that, because of the pandemic, there have been several million fewer persons looking for work, leaving a huge number of unfilled job vacancies, particularly in the face of a roughly 10% higher jump in demand. This has given employees the upper hand, as there are almost always higher...
Read More »Resurrecting the metric: initial claims lead the unemployment rate
Resurrecting the metric: initial claims lead the unemployment rate; no recession signal so far Initial jobless claims declined -2,000 to 229,000 last week, vs. the 50+ year low of 166,000 set in March. The 4 week average rose from 4,500 to 223,500, compared with the all-time low of 170,500 eleven weeks ago. Continuing claims rose 5,000 to 1,315,000, which is 9,000 above their 50 year low of 3 weeks ago: Initial claims have been in an uptrend...
Read More »The Great Unemployment Fudge
In the U.S., we are told, the post-World War II period was a golden age of full employment. High wartime government spending had brought to an end the double-digit unemployment and misery of the Depression, and as war gave way to peace, unemployment settled at a non-inflationary level of 3-5%. It's known as the post-war "economic miracle".But it's a myth. There was never full employment. The low unemployment of the post-war years is a massive statistical fudge. In fact, over five million...
Read More »the recession’s likely long-term impact on homelessness
I’ve just written a report for Employment and Social Development Canada on the current recession’s likely long-term impact on homelessness in Canada. An overview of the report can be found here. Nick Falvo is a Calgary-based research consultant with a PhD in Public Policy. He has academic affiliation at both Carleton University and Case Western Reserve University, and is Section Editor of the Canadian Review of Social Policy/Revue canadienne de politique sociale. You can...
Read More »Lifting singles out of poverty in canada
I’ve written a report for the Institute for Research on Public Policy about social assistance—specifically, about social assistance for employable single adults without dependants. A ‘top 10’ overview of the report can be found here. Nick Falvo is a Calgary-based research consultant with a PhD in Public Policy. He has academic affiliation at both Carleton University and Case Western Reserve University, and is Section Editor of the Canadian Review of Social...
Read More »Social assistance: Do higher benefit levels lead to higher caseloads?
As part of my PhD thesis, I did some statistical analysis in which I asked the question: “Do higher social assistance benefit levels lead to higher caseloads?” I have recently updated the data and had it published in a journal. Here’s a short summary of the journal article’s main findings. Nick Falvo is a Calgary-based research consultant with a PhD in Public Policy. He has academic affiliation at both Carleton University and Case Western Reserve University, and is...
Read More »Social assistance: Do higher benefit levels lead to higher caseloads?
As part of my PhD thesis, I did some statistical analysis in which I asked the question: “Do higher social assistance benefit levels lead to higher caseloads?” I have recently updated the data and had it published in a journal. Here’s a short summary of the journal article’s main findings. Nick Falvo is a Calgary-based research consultant with a PhD in Public Policy. He has academic affiliation at both Carleton University and Case Western Reserve University, and is...
Read More »Homelessness in canada could rise due to recession
I am currently writing a report for Employment and Social Development Canada looking at the long-term impact of the current recession on homelessness. It should be ready by early November. In the meantime, a teaser blog post I’ve just written on the same topic is available here. Nick Falvo is a Calgary-based research consultant with a PhD in Public Policy. He has academic affiliation at both Carleton University and Case Western Reserve University, and is Section...
Read More »Homelessness in canada could rise due to recession
I am currently writing a report for Employment and Social Development Canada looking at the long-term impact of the current recession on homelessness. It should be ready by early November. In the meantime, a teaser blog post I’ve just written on the same topic is available here. Nick Falvo is a Calgary-based research consultant with a PhD in Public Policy. He has academic affiliation at both Carleton University and Case Western Reserve University, and is Section...
Read More »A Recovery With Crippled Small Businesses Looks Awkward — Brian Romanchuk
We have just seen the beginning of post-COVID economic data, and the numbers are literally off the charts. My feeling is that aggregate numbers will be meaningless, and we will need to look at industry-level data. I just wanted to look a bit ahead, to the post-lockdown future. My main concerns revolve around the small business sector, which I fear will be taking a bigger hit than larger businesses. The issue is that small businesses are a major driver of employment -- and we are likely to...
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