Tag Archives: US EConomics

CRFB’s FINAL ANALYSIS OF 2023  SOCIAL SECURITY TRUSTEES REPORT  Analysis of the 2023 Social Security Trustees’ Report, Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, Social Security Dale Coberly: I reported a few days ago on CRFB’s “preliminary analysis” of the 2023 Social Security Trustees Report.  I hoped to show then that though CRFB reported “true” facts, they surrounded those facts with misleading language intended to promote hysteria...

March jobs report: leading sectors turn down in a pre-recessionary, but still quite positive, report  – by New Deal democrat Unsurprisingly, my focus on this report, like the last few reports, was on whether residential construction jobs turned negative or not, whether manufacturing and temporary jobs continued on their downward trajectory, and whether the deceleration in job growth would be apparent. Some of the deceleration or decline...

The Overdue Selection of Stuff from My In-Box. Some days are good at Angry Bear. Getting a background in how to run a Blog by myself at this time. Sometimes run out of ideas. Fortunately, I have good influx of articles hitting my In-Box daily. I recently cleaned out a couple of thousand emails going back a couple of years. Hoping Dan will get better and can join me. He was the brains and is the owner of Angry Bear. I just write or C&P . . ....

Revisions cause initial claims, the last positive leading indicator, to capitulate  – by New Deal democrat Initial and continuing claims underwent some serious revisions with this week’s release. Rather than attempt an explanation myself, here is the nub of the BLS’s own explanation: Beginning … [this week], the methodology used to seasonally adjust the national initial claims and continued claims reflects a change in the estimation of the...

Except for the beginning, mostly a copy and paste here. Housing is an issue in the U.S. There are not many appropriately priced house being built or used ones on the market. The same holds true for apartments. We have a lot of young families trying to figure out where to live. Then once they decide, they can not find the necessary housing much less the pricing they can afford. Now, I said it twice. Do you get the picture? The author has described...

One of the last of the positive short leading indicators rolls over  – by New Deal democrat The only economic release today of any significance was the ISM non-manufacturing index, which tracks services. It is only about 25 years old, and is not a leading indicator the way its sibling manufacturing index is, but for the record in March it showed slight expansion at 51.2. Here is its entire history: Its new orders subindex came in at 52.2....

April 3, 2023, Letters from an American, Prof. Heather Cox Richardson. On Saturday, April 1, the emergency measures Congress put in place to extend medical coverage at the beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic expired. This means that states can end Medicaid coverage for people who do not meet the pre-pandemic eligibility requirements, which are based primarily on income. As many as 15 million of the 85 million people covered by Medicaid could lose...

February JOLTS report shows further *relative* weakening in the jobs market  – by New Deal democrat The February JOLTS report showed a weakening in almost all important trends. The strongest component of the entire series has been job openings. I tend to place lower significance on this, because there is ample evidence that companies have “gamed” this metric either to build up a bank of resumes, or else to suggest that their growth is strong...

National FDI Data Detail Just some Information to throw around. Ten States Leading America’s FDI Manufacturing Workforce, globalbusiness.org and here National FDI Data – GBA globalbusiness.org (see chart to the right). The article declares there are ten states which are benefiting the most from Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). This is taken from a pitch in Global Business which was also picked up in DBusiness (Detroit). “In the past...

Both manufacturing and construction continue to contract  – by New Deal democrat As usual, we start the month with data on last month’s manufacturing activity, and the previous month’s construction activity. This month, both were negative. The ISM manufacturing index, which has had an excellent record as a leading indicator for the past 75 years, declined to 46.3, its lowest level since the pandemic recovery began. The new orders index,...