Tag Archives: US EConomics

An in-depth look at production and sales: evidence of peaking in both  – by New Deal democrat Yesterday I took an in-depth look at employment. Today let’s take a look at two other important coincident indicators that are looked at by the NBER for guidance as to whether or not the economy is expanding or in recession: production and sales. As I’ve mentioned several times in the past month, as of the latest readings it looks like industrial...

‘Right-to-repair’ advocates skeptical of John Deere agreement, NPR, Joe Hernandez Pulling from NPR’s Joe Hernandez’s article and adding some of my automotive background. to explain. Like automobiles, tractors have gone high-tech using on-board computers and semi-conductors to run various systems within cars and also farm tractors. This includes systems such as fuel injection to oxygen ratios, ignition, timing, temperature, and the overall...

Scenes from the December jobs report: more deceleration  – by New Deal democrat The only significant economic data this week will be released on Thursday, with both CPI and jobless claims. In the meantime, let’s take a closer look at the jobs data we got last Friday. As indicated in the title of this post, the theme was “deceleration.” First, here is the long term YoY look at total employment (blue), employment in goods-producing industries...

In which I quibble with Prof. Alan Blinder about the main reason for the decline in inflation since June  – by New Deal democrat Alan S. Blinder is getting traction for an opinion piece published in the WSJ concerning the big decline in inflation since June. He acknowledges that“ energy inflation played a meaningful role” but that “the rest of the stunning drop in inflation in 2022 [is] due …  What did change dramatically was the supply...

A different viewpoint by myself which is not so new and very workable. Dean Baker at CEPR offers up his viewpoint on saving Social Security. I believe we are in close proximity to a solution except I would suggest a different source of funds. Dale, Bruce, and Arne have talked this simple solution up until blue in the face. People still want to tax other entities and impair the existing Social Contract with Labor or the Worker. “Big Victory on...

Weekly Indicators for January 2 – 6 at Seeking Alpha  – by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. No big changes from the past month or so. The overall economic picture continues to be driven by the effects of the price of gas. As usual, clicking over and reading will bring you up to the virtual moment as to the trends in the economy, and reward me a little bit for my efforts. Weekly Indicators for December...

December jobs report: good headlines, but deceleration continues    – by New Deal democrat If the long leading indicators all last year, and the majority of the short leading indicators from the past few months are to be believed, a recession is near. And if that is the case, we ought to see the leading elements of the jobs report begin to roll over. One of them, the average manufacturing workweek, clearly has. Arguably so has temporary...

December manufacturing, new orders both decline further, to readings even more on the cusp of recession  – by New Deal democrat I described last month’s ISM manufacturing reading as being one “on the cusp of recession.” Well, this month’s reading was even cusp-ier. To recapitulate, this index has a very long and reliable history. Going back almost 75 years, the new orders index has always fallen below 50 within 6 months before a recession....

New jobless claims end 2022 on a positive note; preview of tomorrow’s jobs report  – by New Deal democrat Initial claims started off the year – or ended last year if you are technical about it – on a positive note, declining 19,000 to a 3-month low of 204,000. The more important 4 week moving average declined 6,750 to 213,750, a two-month low. Continuing claims for the prior week also declined by 24,000 to 1,694,000 (due to either a software or...

“This Pioneering Economist Says Our Obsession With Growth Must End,” NYT. Portions are (or much) taken from David Marchese’s interview with Herman Daly in 2022. Economist Herman Daly passed on, October 28 in Richmond, Virginia. at the age of 84. What made Herman Daly unique was his embracing of “the counterintuitive possibility our current pursuit of growth, rabid as it is causing such great ecological harm. In turn, the pursuit might be incurring...