Tag Archives: US EConomics

Positive revisions make for a good March industrial production report  – by New Deal democrat If retail sales for March were bad, industrial production (blue in the graph below) was at very least mixed to the upside. Total production increased +0.4%, and on top of that February was revised higher by +0.2%, and January was revised higher by +0.5%. The not so good news is that while manufacturing (red) was also revised higher by +0.5% for...

March real retail sales lay an egg, suggests downturn in nonfarm payrolls by the end of summer  – by New Deal democrat  After a quiet early part of the week, today we get a deluge of data: retail sales and industrial production for March, and total business sales for February. Because real total business sales are one of the 4 big coincident indicators tracked by the NBER, and because retail sales are about 1/3rd of the total, and industrial...

Initial claims continue to warrant yellow caution flag  – by New Deal democrat Initial jobless claims last week rose 11,000 to 239,000. The more important 4 week average rose 2,250 to 240,000. Continuing claims, with a one week delay, decreased 13,000 to 1,823,000: At this juncture the YoY change is more important, because increases of more than 10%, especially in the 4 week average, or monthly, are a yellow caution flag for recession, and...

This is a brief and targeted commentary by EPI’s Josh Bivens to which I have added input. The Fed has been flailing away at the economy in the belief Labor is the issue. Josh contends, product or profit markups have been a major issue. He does provide a foundation for his posit. I look to the supply chain issue(s) as the basis for the higher profits. I experienced similar in getting componentry in 2008-2010. With less supply and a lengthen (and...

Properly measured, consumer inflation is only about 3.0% YoY, and the economy has experience Deflation since last June  – by New Deal democrat One month ago, I “officially” took the position that inflation had been conquered, and that, properly measured, the economy had actually been experiencing deflation since last June. This morning’s report only confirmed that position. The primary reason, as I have been pounding on for almost 18 months,...

AAR: March Rail Carloads and Intermodal Decreased Year-over-year by Calculated Risk on 4/07/2023 03:25:00 PM From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) Rail Time Indicators. Graphs and excerpts reprinted with permission by AAR to Bill McBride. Rail volumes today are being negatively influenced by broader economic trends, including slowdowns in industrial output, high inventory levels at many retailers, lower port activity, and...

Scenes from the March employment report 2: unemployment recession indicators  – by New Deal democrat A reminder: I may be offline for the next couple of days. In the meantime, yesterday I looked at the 5 leading indicators contained in the employment report, and summarized how they either signal recession now or within the next 3 to 6 months. Today I want to focus on unemployment and underemployment. Economist Gloria Sahm’s Rule, namely...

Scenes from the March employment report 1: leading sector indicators  – by New Deal democrat There’s no significant economic news this week until Wednesday’s CPI report, and as a side note, I might be offline for a day or two later this week. In the meantime, today and tomorrow let’s take a look at some of the important information from last Friday’s employment report. Today, I’m taking a look at the leading employment sectors and several...

Poland, Hungary, Turkey, Russia, Israel, India, Italy, Brazil, …, and even the USA; around the world, we are seeing democracies lurching toward autocracy and/or theocracy. A hundred years from now, history will tell us what it was all about. It would help to know now. Though no common denominator stands out; one of the more common is religion. More specifically, it is right-wing religious groups either leading the charge toward theocracy or being...

Weekly Indicators for April 3 – 7 at Seeking Alpha  – by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha.  Probably unsurprisingly, the big news this week was the effect of the revisions to the initial jobless claims data, and also the turning down of several sectors in the monthly jobs report. Anyway, as usual clicking over and reading will bring you up to the virtual moment as to the data, and reward me a little bit...