Tag Archives: US EConomics

January JOLTS report consistent with a softening, but still very strong, labor market  – by New Deal democrat This morning’s JOLTS report for January, unlike the recent payrolls report, generally showed further softening in the labor market. While hires (red in the graph below, normed to a value of 100 as of February 2020) increased 121,000, quits (gold) declined 207,000, and openings (blue) declined 410,000: The downward trend in quits...

The Fed still seems determined to bring about a recession  – by New Deal democrat As I wrote on Saturday, several coincident indicators have stabilized in the past several months (for example, Redbook consumer sales, which has been at roughly 5% YoY for 8 weeks; and payroll tax withholding, which was only up 1.2% YoY for the last 4 months of 2022, but is up 4.7% YoY for the first 9 weeks of this year). This has led to increased speculation that...

Unfortunately, this did not include the screening of “Loan Wolves.” The clip is approximately 36 minutes long. It includes Alan Collinge of Student Loan Justice who I have known for over a decade. Alan has been on Angry Bear Blog multiple times. He has not given up his, the crusade seeking relief for student loans. “Loan Wolves” Writer and Director Blake Zeff has written for The Onion and Politico besides doing other things. He is the chief...

Dale Coberly talking about reforming entitlements and the impact on Social Security . . . CRFB, “The Committee For a Responsible Federal Budget”, is an organization dedicated to reducing the National Debt or federal budget deficit, so it says.  But it seems to spend most of its time calling for  “reforming entitlements,” meaning “cut Social Security” which has nothing to do with the Debt/Deficit. Social Security is paid for entirely by the...

Weekly Indicators for February 27 – March 3 at Seeking Alpha  – by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. A number of indicators which had been declining have stabilized since the beginning of the year, leading to increased speculation about a “soft” landing or even a “no landing” at all. The bulk of the long and short leading indicators beg to differ. As usual, clicking over and reading will fill you in on...

For one, I find it difficult for behavior economics to explain why people are reacting in irrational ways. For example, University of Chicago poses some statements or questions on the issues. “Why do people often avoid or delay investing in 401ks or exercising, even if they know that doing those things would benefit them?” And, “Why do gamblers often risk more after both winning and losing, even though the odds remain the same, regardless of...

Many of you know me from my telling of past experiences. Here is one more to add to the pile. A recent email to me about an employment opportunity in automotive. My return email to the headhunter. Renaldo: Thank you for your interest.  Having been trapped between Engineering and the plants over the years where I was working was an experience. No amount of logic would sway their demands for what they wanted regardless of their being a part of...

Real final sales and inventories as portents of recession  – by New Deal democrat As I have mentioned previously from time to time, I read people who have interesting things to say even if their worldview is very different from mine. One such person is Mike Shedlock, a/k/a Mish. He’s an aggressive libertarian and has a long track record as a Doomer, but he frequently parses some thought-provoking economic data. It makes me think, even if I...

I agree with Charles Gaba. Medicare Advantage is not much better than Commercial Healthcare Insurance. To wit, it is Commercial Healthcare Insurance gussied up to look like FFS Medicare. The extra benefits given to enrollees in Medicare Advantage comes from FFS Medicare expenditures. Furthermore, the companies providing healthcare to those on Medicare bid low and are paid high: “benchmarks and payments remain above FFS spending levels. We estimate...

Jobless claims: the situation remains, ‘all system go’  – by New Deal democrat Initial jobless claims declined -2,000 last week to 190,000, while the 4 week moving average increased 1,750 to 193,000. Continuing claims, with a one week delay, increased 5,000 to 1,655,000. All of these remain excellent numbers: To repeat my meme over the past year, virtually nobody is getting laid off. It’s almost impossible to have an economic downturn with...