Tag Archives: US EConomics

Jobless claims highest in three months – but seasonality still playing a huge role On a unadjusted basis, new jobless claims rose by 231,335 to 1,151,015. Seasonally adjusted claims also rose by 181,000 to 965,000. The 4 week moving average rose by 18,250 to 834,250. Here is the close up since the end of July (these numbers were in the range of 5 to 7 million at their worst in early April):  There is now a 2+ month trend of YoY%...

Scenes from the December jobs report Friday’s December jobs report saw the first decline in employment since the lockdowns of March and April. Let’s take a closer look.As I pointed out Friday, the losses were concentrated in the food and dining (restaurant) and amusement and recreation sectors, both of which are shown below normalized to 100 as of February: The two sectors are down 20% and 30% from their February peaks.By contrast, the leading...

by New Deal democrat Programming note   Four year ago I wrote a valedictory piece about the Obama Administration, and separately wrote of my fears of what the Trump Administration would wreak. Needless to say, especially in light of events of the past week, I intend to do the same retrospective as to Trump and the current state of the GOP and the Republic. Much of what I have to say is in agreement with disparate threads I have read on...

November JOLTS report shows the renewed impact of the pandemic, partial lockdowns This morning’s JOLTS report for November (remember – a month in which there were total job gains) showed a jobs market recovery that at least paused due to the increasing effects of the out of control pandemic. Hires were up (good), while quits were unchanged, openings declined (bad) and layoffs and discharges rose (bad). While the JOLTS data is a deep dive into...

An Appointment I Disapprove Of  While many of them could be more progressive, given that Biden himself is largely a moderate making moderate nods to the progressive wing of the Democratic Party in his appointments, I have largely been not too dissatisfied with appointments made so far by President-Elect Biden.  My only surprise is that a bunch of people set their pants on fire over the appointment of Neera Tanden as OMB director while barely a...

November construction spending confirms building surge One of my consistent themes in the past few months has been how the housing market is priming the economy for strong growth in 2021 as soon as the pandemic is brought under control. In that vein, November construction spending surged, confirming what we have already been seeing in housing permits and starts. First of all, here are both total and residential construction spending for the...

November construction spending confirms building surge One of my consistent themes in the past few months has been how the housing market is priming the economy for strong growth in 2021 as soon as the pandemic is brought under control. In that vein, November construction spending surged, confirming what we have already been seeing in housing permits and starts. First of all, here are both total and residential construction spending for the...

Even More Questions What is capital?What power does capital have when invested in machinery, lands, agricultural improvements, etc.?What happens to individuals when they have experienced the accumulative power of money?

Final jobless claims of 2020 continue to show a lack of progress New jobless claims declined for the second week in a row this week, but are still significantly above their recent pandemic lows, while continuing claims, seasonally adjusted, once again made a new pandemic low. There is a sizable but by no means certain likelihood that December’s jobs number will be negative.On a unadjusted basis, new jobless claims declined by 31,736 to...

The Four big coincident indicators as of the end of 2020 All of the important economic data for 2020 has already been released. In this final week only November house prices and one last week of jobless claims remain. So this is a good time to take a look at the current state of the economy as it has unfolded in this pandemic year. The 4 most important components in the NBER’s toolkit for calling recessions and expansions are real sales,...