Initial and continued jobless claims: signs that the worst of the pandemic related layoffs may be behind us Some – very relative – good news in unemployment claims this week. It looks like the recent increase in new claims has peaked, while continued claims continue to decline. With new daily infections, still horrible at 100,000/day, only 40% of their 250,000/day peak, and vaccinations slowly increasing near 1.5 million/day, we may have seen the...
Read More »Cause
Before Science, treating the symptoms of an illness was all we had. Along our way, using trial and error, we found a few things that worked. The big breakthroughs came when we started to look for the causes of an illness. The association of an illness with toxins was deducible. Then, as we knew more and could see farther, we found that most of our physical illnesses were caused by such other things as bacteria, and viruses. Still and yet, we see...
Read More »Economic insecurity, redux
Several comments on my last post on the economic difficulties of the people who attacked the Capitol took aim at their characters in one way or another. I certainly do not want to defend the Capitol invaders in any way. I think they should be vigorously prosecuted. However, it is critically important to step back from the violent horror of the assault and think strategically about how we can use public policy to reduce the risk of political...
Read More »Is Bitcoin Really Real Money?
Is Bitcoin Really Real Money? Ontological and Epistemological Questions The movement to make Bitcoin into a de facto form of money has taken a step forward when Elon Musk declared that he would be purchasing over a billion btc. Some are claiming that Musk did this to pump up an alternative asset because Tesla stock is overpriced and may fall hard soon. But who knows? Anyway, although btc fell today, it has reached dramatic new highs well over...
Read More »Is Bitcoin Really Real Money?
Is Bitcoin Really Real Money? Ontological and Epistemological Questions The movement to make Bitcoin into a de facto form of money has taken a step forward when Elon Musk declared that he would be purchasing over a billion btc. Some are claiming that Musk did this to pump up an alternative asset because Tesla stock is overpriced and may fall hard soon. But who knows? Anyway, although btc fell today, it has reached dramatic new highs well over...
Read More »Score one for the economic insecurity theory of Trump . . .
From the WAPO: Despite her outward signs of success, Ryan had struggled financially for years. She was still paying off a $37,000 lien for unpaid federal taxes when she was arrested. She’d nearly lost her home to foreclosure before that. She filed for bankruptcy in 2012 and faced another IRS tax lien in 2010. Nearly 60 percent of the people facing charges related to the Capitol riot showed signs of prior money troubles, including bankruptcies,...
Read More »Score one for the economic insecurity theory of Trump . . .
From the WAPO: Despite her outward signs of success, Ryan had struggled financially for years. She was still paying off a $37,000 lien for unpaid federal taxes when she was arrested. She’d nearly lost her home to foreclosure before that. She filed for bankruptcy in 2012 and faced another IRS tax lien in 2010. Nearly 60 percent of the people facing charges related to the Capitol riot showed signs of prior money troubles, including bankruptcies,...
Read More »Three cheers for child benefits!
Let’s discuss something worth getting really excited about, the Biden/Romney child tax credit/child allowance proposals. These proposals would make life much better for poor children and their parents. A lot better. Neither proposal goes as far as I would like, but they would be a real improvement and could be made more generous over time. I will briefly describe the proposals and then discuss the political changes that may have paved the way...
Read More »Three cheers for child benefits!
Let’s discuss something worth getting really excited about, the Biden/Romney child tax credit/child allowance proposals. These proposals would make life much better for poor children and their parents. A lot better. Neither proposal goes as far as I would like, but they would be a real improvement and could be made more generous over time. I will briefly describe the proposals and then discuss the political changes that may have paved the way...
Read More »Information or propaganda? More Cowen on minimum wages
Today Tyler Cowen posted this: Remember the proposals for a $15 federal minimum wage? Employment would be reduced by 1.4 million workers, or 0.9 percent, according to CBO’s average estimate… That is from the new CBO report. Here is a bit more context: In an average week in 2025, the year when the minimum wage would reach $15 per hour, 17 million workers whose wages would otherwise be below $15 per hour would be directly affected, and...
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