Tag Archives: US EConomics

AB: That the US is still playing around with costly old technology and pollutes the environment is unbelievable. In the end, it will come back and haunt the later generations as energy and resources become more expensive. Ford Motor Co. is ramping up production of its F-Series Super Duty pickups with a $3 billion investment to keep up with the explosive demand for the trucks. The Detroit automaker plans put around $2.3 billion of that...

Back when we were grad students at UNC-Chapel Hill from 1977-82, my wife and I made several trips to the Outer Banks. One reason was to visit her uncle and his family, who lived in Buxton, just north of Hatteras lighthouse. What struck me then was how many people lived in homes on the coast in spite of the flooding risk. Not only the storm surge from the Atlantic that washed over the barrier islands from the east, but after the storm passed, the...

– by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. With the bond market anticipating Fed rate cuts ahead, it has already lowered mortgage rates somewhat on its own. That has led to a jump in new applications, and to an even bigger spike in refinancing. As usual, clicking over and reading will bring you up to the virtual moment as to the economic data, and reward me a little bit for my efforts in organizing it for...

Also depicted by Bill McBride at Calculated Risk – MBA: “Mortgage Delinquencies Increase in Q2 2024” WASHINGTON, D.C. (August 15, 2024) – The mortgage delinquency rate for mortgage loans on one-to-four-unit residential properties increased to a seasonally adjusted rate of 3.97 percent of all loans outstanding at the end of the second quarter of 2024, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) National Delinquency Survey. The...

 – by New Deal democrat The effects of Hurricane Beryl had just enough of an effect on home building in July to cause me not to hoist a yellow recession caution flag in this important leading sector. While the hurricane had no significant effect on permits, it likely did have an effect on starts and on units under construction, as I’ll go into further below. Let’s start with the overall view. Starts (blue in the graph below), which are noisier...

by Lloyd Alter Carbon Upfront! The economist John Maynard Keynes purportedly said, “When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?” I am considering changing my mind about 3D printed houses. I wrote eight years ago: “I am not a total skeptic about 3D-printed houses. I think there is a place for them—on the moon, for example.” The first commenter noted: “What a stupidly conservative view… the article is absolute garbage.”...

 – by New Deal democrat In the past, industrial production has been the King of Coincident Indicators, since its peaks and troughs tended to coincide almost exactly with the onset and endings of recessions. That weighting has faded somewhat since the accession of China to the world trading system in 1999 an the wholesale flight of US manufacturing to Asia, generating several false recession signals, most notably in 2015-16. But it is still an...

 – by New Deal democrat The second point of economic data released this morning, retail sales, were also positive. On a nominal basis, retail sales in July rose 1.0%. After adjusting for inflation, they rose 0.8% to the highest level so far this year. The below graph norms both real retail sales (dark blue) and the similar measure of real personal consumption of goods (light blue) to 100 as of just before the pandemic: Since the end of...

 – by New Deal democrat Last week I pointed out that the YoY increases in initial and continuing jobless claims appeared to be all about Texas in the wake of Beryl. This week there was good news even with some continued hurricane Beryl effects in Texas. Initial claims declined -7,000 to 227,000 for the week, while the 4-week average declined -4,500 to 236,500. Continuing claims with the typical one-week delay declined -7,000 to 1.864 million:...

Apparently, JD Vance thinks so.*Not to go all anecdotal here, but in 1981, I bought my first car, a brand-new Mazda GLC hatchback, for $5770. In 2024 dollars, that’s $20,000. It had no radio, no air conditioning and no passenger-side sun visor. My most recent car purchase was a 2013 Honda Fit four-door, which I bought for $15,000. It has a radio and CD player, cruise control, air conditioning, front and side-door air bags and both driver- and...