Tag Archives: US EConomics

New home sales: if you lower prices, they (buyers) will come  – by New Deal democrat New home sales are the most leading of all the housing metrics, but suffer from being heavily revised as well as extreme volatility.  With that caveat out of the way, in December new single family home sales (blue in the graph below) rose 49,000 on an annualized basis to 664,000, just about in the middle of their last year’s range: Because the much...

Modeling the numbers on bottom-up and middle-out economics. How Redistribution Makes Us All Richer, Wealth Economics, Steve Roth You hear a lot about bottom-up and middle-out economics these days, as antidotes to a half-century of “trickle-down” theorizing and rhetoric. You’re even hearing it, prominently, from Joe Biden. [embedded content] They’re compelling ideas: put more wealth and income in the hands of millions, or hundreds of...

A discussion: EV sales have been stalling, while hybrids are flying off dealer lots  – by New Deal democrat In addition to housing, the other big area where supply shock inflation has not completely resolved is vehicles. Basically almost the entirety of 2020 production was lost, leading to roughly a 10 million vehicle shortfall in the amount necessary to replace old vehicles. As the below graph shows, while new vehicles cost no more in “real”...

I read this article “MAGA warning to Dems is right on target.” An OpEd by the NY Post. Others may disagree, I believe it to be nonsensical. Just some rich guy saying, I like it like this. Don’t change it. There is a lot saying he is wrong. Adding the detail in brevity. You can always click on a link to get more detail. Here is Jamie Dimon comping trump and Biden on the economy. What do you think he is worried about over the next four years? First,...

The Bonddad Blog: Are working class wages really still a malady? New Deal democrat Via Kevin Drum, NY Times columnist Nick Kristof says, “There isn’t a good term for the bundle of pathologies that have afflicted working-class Americans . . . .” “One gauge of how many Americans are struggling is that average weekly nonsupervisory wages, a metric for blue-collar earnings, were lower in the first half of 2023 than they had been (adjusted for...

Weekly Indicators for January 15 – 19 at Seeking Alpha  – by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. The big headlines yesterday were that stocks made a new all time high, for the first time in two years. Meanwhile, estimated plus actual earnings so far for the 4th Quarter of 2023 were on track for their lowest number since Q1 of 2021. Either corporate earnings are going to rebound sharply or stocks have...

Briefly noted: existing home sales appear to be bottoming near 30 year lows as prices continue to firm  – by New Deal democrat Last month I wrote that existing home sales “are likely in the process of bottoming, as they have been in the range of 3.79 million to 4.10 million for the past five months:” That continued to be the case in December, as sales declined -3,000 on an annualized basis to 3.78 million: On a longer term basis,...

Housing construction changes little in December; but increased mortgage rates from H2 2023 have not yet been digested  – by New Deal democrat For this post, I’m going to show what the housing market looks like from most to least leading of the indicators. That shows that, although this morning’s release for housing permits and starts for December was generally positive, it is more likely that housing construction will decline rather than...

Jobless claims: bar one week, the lowest number of layoffs in over half a century  – by New Deal democrat To reiterate my theme from last week, we’re back to the virtuous scenario where almost nobody is getting laid off. Initial jobless claims last week declined -16,000 to 187,000. Except for one week in September 2022, this is the lowest number in over 50 years (since 1969, to be more precise). The 4-week average declined -4,750 to 203,250,...

Who saved the US from a pandemic and delivered a good economy. The 2024 political cycle, a triumph of recycling. President Biden and former President Trump are preparing to star in a sequel most Americans do not care to see. That means that eyes will be on the vice-president, Kamala Harris, as well. Because Mr Biden is the oldest president ever, and would be 82 at his second inauguration, voters will scrutinize Ms. Harris with unusual care. The...