Tag Archives: US EConomics

Typically, what happens with these types of regulations is delay for another 2 to five years before becoming active. This may occur. The other likelihood being the automakers going to court suing for a delay or a ruling on constitutionality. SCOTUS could again decide Congress can only make regulations and this capability was not delegated properly or can not be delegated to the NHTSA. One example: “Tip Regulations under the Fair Labor Standards...

Typically, what happens with these types of regulations is delay for another 2 to five years before becoming active. This may occur. The other likelihood being the automakers going to court suing for a delay or a ruling on constitutionality. SCOTUS could again decide Congress can only make regulations and this capability was not delegated properly or can not be delegated to the NHTSA. One example: “Tip Regulations under the Fair Labor Standards...

Weekly Indicators for July 31 – August 4, and long term forecast through H1 2024 at Seeking Alpha  – by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. No big changes in the data, but note that mortgage and other interest rates are up close to their peaks. This will operate to slow down growth in the housing market among other things. As usual, clicking over and reading will bring you up to the virtual moment, and...

Weekly Indicators for July 31 – August 4, and long term forecast through H1 2024 at Seeking Alpha  – by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. No big changes in the data, but note that mortgage and other interest rates are up close to their peaks. This will operate to slow down growth in the housing market among other things. As usual, clicking over and reading will bring you up to the virtual moment, and...

July jobs report: almost across the board deterioration in leading sectors  – by New Deal democrat My focus remains on whether jobs growth continues to decelerate, and whether the leading indicators, particularly manufacturing and construction jobs, as well as the unemployment rate (which leads going into recessions) have meaningfully deteriorated. Almost all of these items did deteriorate in July. Here’s my in-depth synopsis....

July jobs report: almost across the board deterioration in leading sectors  – by New Deal democrat My focus remains on whether jobs growth continues to decelerate, and whether the leading indicators, particularly manufacturing and construction jobs, as well as the unemployment rate (which leads going into recessions) have meaningfully deteriorated. Almost all of these items did deteriorate in July. Here’s my in-depth synopsis....

Some Points . . . Healthcare services slight increases as a share of total consumer spending in the quarter, rising from 15.9 percent to 16.0 percent of total consumption and down from 17+ percent. Hopes are healthcare stays at that rate. Structure investment increases at a 9.7 percent annual rate after growing at a 15.8 percent annual rate over two qtrs. Driven by factory construction growing at a 94.0 percent annual rate. Equipment investment...

Some Points . . . Healthcare services slight increases as a share of total consumer spending in the quarter, rising from 15.9 percent to 16.0 percent of total consumption and down from 17+ percent. Hopes are healthcare stays at that rate. Structure investment increases at a 9.7 percent annual rate after growing at a 15.8 percent annual rate over two qtrs. Driven by factory construction growing at a 94.0 percent annual rate. Equipment investment...

Jobless claims: a good example of why my forecasting discipline demands a confirmed trend  – by New Deal democrat Initial jobless claims for the last week of July rose 6,000 to 227,000. The 4 week average decreased -5,500 to 228,250. Continuing claims, with a one week lag, rose 21,000 to 1.7 million: The YoY% change is much more important for forecasting purposes. There, initial claims were up 4.1%, the 4 week average up 5.8%, and continuing...

Jobless claims: a good example of why my forecasting discipline demands a confirmed trend  – by New Deal democrat Initial jobless claims for the last week of July rose 6,000 to 227,000. The 4 week average decreased -5,500 to 228,250. Continuing claims, with a one week lag, rose 21,000 to 1.7 million: The YoY% change is much more important for forecasting purposes. There, initial claims were up 4.1%, the 4 week average up 5.8%, and continuing...