Tag Archives: US EConomics

September producer prices confirm economic tailwind has ended  – by New Deal democrat My strong suspicion has been that the tailwind of declining commodity prices, typified by the big decline in gas prices in late 2022 is what allowed the US economy to grow so well so far this year, blunting the effects of major Fed interest rate hikes. For the last several months, my focus has been whether that decline is over. This morning’s producer price...

A note on Middle Eastern turmoil and gas and oil prices  – by New Deal democrat While we wait for producer and consumer inflation data later this week, here’s a note about gas prices. With the newest shock in the Middle East, conventional wisdom is that the price of oil and gas will spike. And maybe they will, but the truth is, because of the involvement of both market and geopolitical players, nobody really knows. Remember that Russia’s...

Scenes from the September jobs report: a look at leading indicators  – by New Deal democrat Today is a holiday, so no new economic news. So let’s take a look at some of the leading indicators I was tracking last week for the employment report, and some leading indicators for the economy within that report itself. In the JOLTS report for August last week, quits rose slightly from their 30 month low set in July, leaving the declining trend...

If you get a chance, wander over to Seeking Alpha and read New Deal democrat’s very thorough take on the economy. You can set up a fee, limited account there. AB Weekly Indicators for October 2 – 6 at Seeking Alpha  – by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. While interest rates have continued to rise to multi-decade highs, shorter term indicators continue to chug right along, both on the producer and the...

Medicare Advantage Overbilling Taxpayers by $140 Billion a Year, This is Enough to Wipe Out Medicare Premiums, Informed Comment, Juan Cole and Jake Johnson. AB‘s Joel sent me an Informed Comment article. I read the article and knew there was more to the issue than just overcharging the government by upcoding Medicare Advantage plan members. Merrill Goozner writes GoozNews and got the jump on this topic before me in March of this year. Catching up...

An excellent headline jobs number may mask unresolved seasonality, while unemployment weakness “stuck” at a higher level  – by New Deal democrat As per my reporting earlier this week, my focus this month was on whether wage and jobs growth continue to decelerate, and whether the unemployment rate would remain “sticky” at its higher, 3.8%, rate. Two of those three came to pass. The third, jobs growth, emphatically did not! But it may well...

I have been thinking about buprenorphine, naltrexone and the stimulants cocaine and methamphetamine. An issue which came to my mind recently and which I think it worth discussing is that cocaine is often cut and replaced with fentanyl to hide the over-dilution. This is sometimes done sloppily leading to fentanyl overdoses of people who did not know they were consuming opiates. This is another reason to provide naltrexone to all who request...

No that is not the real story here today. It does give a perspective on why so many too big, too fast, and too often vehicles are eating up limited supplies of gasoline and oil. However, what is being missed is we are not buying more oil for the Strategic Oil Reserve. Although, I am recalling our younger days when for Christmas the boys (meaning my brothers and I) would get “metal” Tonka pickup trucks and other versions of the same brand. Not a...

Very strong initial jobless claims probably the result of unresolved post-pandemic seasonality  –  by New Deal democrat It continues to be reasonably clear that there is some unresolved post-pandemic seasonality in initial jobless claims, which nose-dived last September and rebounded during October. So far the same pattern is evident this year. To wit, initial claims rose 1,000 last week to 207,000. The more important 4 week moving average...

LARC (Long Activer Reversible Contraceptives) are highly effective. It seems to me past time for the US Federal Government to pay for contraceptives (all types not just the device of pharmaceutical but also cost of care from the prescribing physician if required) for everyone who wants them (including Elon Musk if he changes his mind about reproducing as much as possible — no means test). I think that Joe Biden and Nancy Pelosi should make a big...