Tag Archives: US EConomics

Like retail sales, motor vehicles lead the way in industrial production  – by New Deal democrat As with retail sales earlier this morning, motor vehicle production is playing an outsized role in expansion this year. Industrial production as a whole rose 0.3% in September. But August was revised down by -0.2%, so on net it increased only 0.1%. Similarly, manufacturing production rose 0.4%, but with a -0.3% revision to August, was also only up...

Interesting story about a pharma company taking an old drug finding a new usage for it at a particular dosage, filing a patent for the treatment at the specified dosage, and potentially blocking treatment of the disorder at a milligram higher dosage. Drug stores will not fill a prescription at a higher dosage if it is for the treatment of the disorder. Locked up both ways. And the cost to the patient went from pennies to ~$20/pill. A Price Jump...

A big jump in motor vehicle sales highlights a good September for retail sales  – by New Deal democrat  As usual, retail sales is one of my favorite metrics because it tells us so much about the consumer and, indirectly, the labor market and the total economy. Nominally, retail sales rose 0.7% in September, and August’s already good 0.6% was revised upward as well. Since consumer inflation rose 0.4%, real retail sales rose 0.3% – still a...

For some reason in this time of crisis both foreign and domestic, I feel the need to remind Angrybear readers of a very simple stylized fact: If the income tax is constitutional and the top rate is less than 69% then non-incumbent Democratic candidates for President have won if and only if they promise to increase taxes on the rich and cut taxes for everyone else. Bill Clinton, Barack Obama, and Joe Biden did that (and Obama and Biden actually kept...

I am/was hoping to get Brandi Buzzard Frobose’s ok to use her on-the-ranch commentary about the use of mRNA vaccines on livestock. I think she has been too busy to comment back to my email. In any case, I linked to her July 2023 commentary about the use of mRNA in cattle and livestock. As the Iowa State University article states, mRNA is not yet approved for cattle. Testing is going on at Iowa State University and has an end date of September...

The “bearish steepening” and the death of refinancing  – by New Deal democrat If you’ve paid much attention to the financial press in recent days, you have probably read stories that the yield curve – the line that traces the difference in rates in different length bond maturities – has moved towards un-inverting. That is, the situation whereby short term rates are higher than long term rates is moving in the direction of reversing towards a...

Roosevelt Institute’s Economist Mike Konczal calls this a remarkable recovery. The increase in the number of people working has helped tamp down inflation and has shown the importance of aiming for full employment. Myself? I do not think this was planned by any authority, including the Fed. One belief I do have is there being a contrived supply chain shortage by business leading to increasing need for Labor. I do not recall a positive economic...

Weekly Indicators for October 9 – 13 at Seeking Alpha  – by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. The recent improvement in the short leading indicators has made its way through to the coincident indicators. But, given the importance of gas prices, whether the turmoil in the Middle East spreads out to affect oil producing countries is a major issue. As usual, clicking over and reading will bring you up to the...

Real average wages decline, while real aggregate payroll gains remain below peak  – by New Deal democrat With the report on September inflation yesterday, we can update two measures of how well average American workers are doing: real average wages and real aggregate payrolls. Nominally wages increased 0.2% for the month. With consumer prices up 0.4%, real wages declined -0.2%: Real wages had been in an increasing trend since gas prices...

Except for fictitious shelter and vehicle repairs, September inflation was moderate  – by New Deal democrat With the main exception of fictitious shelter, consumer inflation in September remained relatively subdued, but as anticipated has stopped decelerating. First I’ll look at the headlines, then the problem children. Total inflation (blue in the graph below) rose 0.4% for the month, but only 0.3% less food and energy (red). Less shelter...