Wood is a form of natural carbon sequestration. Yesterday, I posted about how wood is making a comeback as a building material. I’ve since found this article announcing that the world’s largest building built (partly) of wood has been greenlit.“Western Australia is set to become home to the world’s tallest timber building, a “revolutionary” 50-storey hybrid design reaching a height of 191.2 metres.Timber will make up 42% of South Perth’s C6 building,...
Read More »Diagnostic Expectations, Anchoring, and Actual Expectations
This is actually related to my day job. For some decades I have been puzzled by two of Kahneman and Tversky’s discoveries (reported very well in this excellent book). First, there is the excessive reliance on diagnostic characteristics (called diagnostic expectations by economists). A classic example is the room with 90 lawyers and 10 engineers. Jim is quiet and hardworking and likes model trains. It is human nature to conclude he is an engineer...
Read More »Domestic factory orders and production vs. real imports as economic forecasting tools
– by New Deal democrat Over the past year, I have downgraded the importance of manufacturing indicators as a forecasting tool for the economy as a whole. This post explores why and suggests a revised tool that may be a helpful short leading indicator. On Monday, durable goods orders rebounded sharply in July from their abrupt June decline. Still, as shown in the graph below, growth in both new factory orders and core capital goods orders has...
Read More »Has Globalization Been Reversed?
by Guest Economist Joseph Joyce Capital Ebbs and Flows The disruption of the global economy caused by the COVID pandemic in 2020 had begun to be overcome when the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 led to new fissures. Sanctions were placed by the United States and European nations on trade and capital transactions with Russia. Before the pandemic, tariffs and other trade measures had been imposed by the United States and China on each other,...
Read More »Lying about Economics
Economist Robert Reich offers up his opinion on JD Vance’s BS claims of tariffs not raising prices. Vance also wishes the tariffs brought a significant number of jobs to or were created in the US. Wrong on both accounts. Did this guy really go to Yale? Vance’s Trumped-Up Economics Today, Republican vice-presidential nominee JD Vance told NBC News that the tariffs Trump imposed during his term in office had not raised prices for Americans...
Read More »Molten salt nuclear reactors still not ready for prime time
If the world is to decarbonize energy without a major economic collapse, nuclear power must be part of the picture. Solar and wind energy generation are growing world-wide, but both will always have to deal with the intermittency problem. Batteries and hydroelectric storage can address some of this, but alternative energy sources must be available for back-up on cloudy days and during still air. The only realistic alternative is nuclear.Despite the...
Read More »When does Putin finally say “enough is enough?”
Or does he? Economist Tom Palley has an interesting piece up at his site of the same name. Subtitled; Economics for Democratic and Open Societies. I did not post all of it as Tom Palley raises the question early on in his commentary. When does Russia Putin finally says “enough is enough” as they are pushed back by Ukraine? If the news is correct in reporting, Ukraine may have Russia on the ropes in its latest attack. Ukraine’s Hiroshima moment...
Read More »The false dichotomy of climate change remediation
The false dichotomy of climate change remediationYears ago, I had a Facebook friend from my hometown who was a big enthusiast of molten salt nuclear reactor technology. He wasn’t a scientist or engineer, but his dad had worked on MSRs in the ‘60s, and he fetishized his dad’s memory. As some point, I mentioned that we had installed rooftop solar on our house, and he began attacking me. Rather than see MSRs and solar as two parallel paths towards...
Read More »This Is a No-Win Situation
A dangerous maneuver by Ukraine, unless Putin and Russia are willing to capitulate after years of fighting. In any case and over time, Zelensky’s life will be in danger. Putin will be hunting for an opportunity to remove this antagonist. FP This Week – Ukraine Invades Russia On Aug. 6, Ukraine surprised the world with an incursion into the Russian region of Kursk. This upended a growing consensus in Washington and elsewhere that the conflict...
Read More »How restrictive are “real” interest rates?
How restrictive are “real” interest rates? – by New Deal democrat This post is inspired by a Xtweet from Paul Krugman this morning, in which he pointed out that if we measured inflation the same way it is done in Europe, the Yoy% change would be only 1.7%. That got me wondering, since the primary difference is how shelter inflation is measured, just how restrictive is current Fed policy across a number of the most important inflation...
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