Tag Archives: US/Global Economics

[unable to retrieve full-text content]Economist reports on what countries are less costly when driving EVs. If you go to the Economist site, you can find more countries by hovering over each colored circle. And is it always greener? Our ranking shows how costs and emissions vary. OWNERS OF ELECTRIC vehicles (EVs) have a lot to brag about. Their cars are […] The post Where is it actually cheaper to drive an electric car? appeared first on Angry Bear.

[unable to retrieve full-text content]There is an approach to cognitive psychology and modelling beliefs and forecasts which is natural for economists and very misleading. The assumptions are that we have a complete set of subjective probabilities updated with Bayes’ formula, that  for any possible combination of events we have a belief about the probability that they will occur and […] The post A Complete Set of Subjective Probabilities, Bayes’ Formula, Overconfidence...

[unable to retrieve full-text content]Mexico buys about $300 billion worth of goods from us every year, mostly machinery, oil, autos, food and office equipment. If Trump imposes a 25% tariff on Mexican imports, you can be sure that Mexico will retaliate, at the expense of American jobs. Meanwhile, Mexico will certainly be looking to source these goods from China […] The post The Trump tariffs won’t actually happen appeared first on Angry Bear.

[unable to retrieve full-text content]One of the first observed and best known errors people make when told probabilities is the Allais paradox.  People put too much weight on rare extreme outcomes.  This means that choices people make different choices when asked to choose between two  lotteries with the same probabilities of the same outcomes depending on how they are […] The post The Allais Paradox appeared first on Angry Bear.

[unable to retrieve full-text content]For 4 decades I have been trying to deal with, what seems to me to be a contradiction between empirical results. Kahneman and Twersky note two things. One is diagnostic expectations – people over react to useful signals of membership in a group – diagnostic symptoms.  One example is that red hair is diagnostic of […] The post Diagnostic Expectations vs Anchoring appeared first on Angry Bear.

[unable to retrieve full-text content]– Israel Agrees to Cease-Fire With Lebanon’s Hezbollah—But What About Gaza?, Common Dreams. After months of slaughtering those not responsible, then you ask for a truce? “A cease-fire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah appeared to be within reach on Monday amid reports that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu repeatedly scuttled diplomatic efforts in recent months. – The Global […] The post...

[unable to retrieve full-text content]Back when Trump rebranded NAFTA as “USMCE,” here’s what he said about it: “We have negotiated this new agreement based on the principle of fairness and reciprocity…. This is a terrific deal for all of us….This new deal will be the most modern, up-to-date, and balanced trade agreement in the history of our country…. With […] The post USMCA used to be “a fair deal for everybody” appeared first...

[unable to retrieve full-text content]I have begun a possibly long series on people’s heuristics and biases when we try to think about probability. I posted one explanation of the Allais Paradox. Click on the link for definitions as I go on assuming earlier posts have been read (this will create problems but I can’t avoid it). Briefly the Allais […] The post Allais Paradox II : Do Two Wrongs Make a Right? appeared first on Angry Bear.

[unable to retrieve full-text content]– by Steve Roth Originally posted at Wealth Economics This post is in response to a very brief Bluesky exchange I had with Dan Rohde and DT Cochrane about the origins of “The Dollar” (specifically U.S.). It led me to read about the U.S. Coinage Act of 1792. Here’s the Wiki, and the Act itself — which I can’t believe […] The post How Units of Account “Came About” appeared first...

[unable to retrieve full-text content]Reading this, about companies reacting (if the author is correct) to tariffs is not a good sign for us. We already have seen an example of the morality of companies in their downsizing of packaging (which has yet to go away) of their food product plus an adder of a few pennies here or there. […] The post Discussing the Impact of Tariffs appeared first on Angry Bear.