Tag Archives: US/Global Economics

Q3 corporate profits increase Third quarter corporate profits were released as part of the first revision of GDP this morning.  Since corporate profits deflated by unit labor costs are a long leading indicator, let’s take a look. Here is the raw corporate profits table released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis: Lines #3 and #11 are the two we are interested in. Both measure corporate profits after tax, with and without inventory adjustments. The...

October new home sales plummet — but take it with a big grain of salt As you may have already read elsewhere, new home sales plunged -8.9% in October to the seasonally adjusted annual rate of 544,000. Here’s the accompanying graph: BUT … take this with a big grain of salt. The reason I rely on building permits, espectially single family permits, is their much smaller volatility, and *much* smaller rate of revisions. To put this in context, here’s...

Janet Yellen “Not Tall Enough” So said Donald Trump on several occasions in connection with possibly appointing her as Fed Chair, according to an article in today’s Washington Post by Philip Rucker, John Dawsey, and Damian Paletta.  This article, along with several others, mostly covered the 20 minute interview these three had with Trump in the Oval Office.  Most of the news was wxs expected: on MbS still “maybe he did and maybe he didn’t” on his role in...

Trump More Seriously Kowtows To MBS  We have already seen the spectacle of Trump simply dismissing the reported CIA conclusion that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MbS) ordered the gruesome murder and dismemberment of journalist Jamal Khashoggi (“Maybe he did, maybe he didn’t”)  He has put forward silly excuses for this: low oil prices! (nonexistent) hundreds of billions of dollars of arms deals!  Key to the anti-Iranian coalition!  Oh, and also...

by Joseph Joyce U.S. Interest Rates and Global Banking in Emerging Market Economies The spillover effects of changes in U.S. interest rates are widely recognized (see here and  here). An increase in rates, for example, raises the cost of dollar-denominated financing outside the U.S., which has grown in recent years, while an appreciation of the dollar makes such debt even more expensive to service and refinance. The emerging markets are among the nations...

; Via Bill McBride at Calculated Risk: Climate Change Report This is a critical threat and should be a nonpartisan issue. Here is the Fourth National Climate Assessment. An excerpt on the economic impact: In the absence of significant global mitigation action and regional adaptation efforts, rising temperatures, sea level rise, and changes in extreme events are expected to increasingly disrupt and damage critical infrastructure and property, labor...

   by New Deal democrat Weekly Indicators for November 19 -23 at Seeking Alpha My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. Conditions among the long leading indicators continue to slowly deteriorate. As usual, clicking over and reading not only is educational as to the current and future state of the economy, but helps reward me with a few $$$ for my efforts.

A belated Happy Thanksgiving and a note about the Index of Leading Indiators The past few days have been spent entertaining and gorging on turkey et al., so I haven’t been posting, but there wasn’t much in the way of economic data, so really nothing has been missed.  I hope you, your family, and your loved ones had a happy Thanksgiving! One item that did get reported on Wednesday worth a quick mention was the Conference Board’s Index of Leading...

October housing permits and starts flat vs. trend This morning’s report on housing permits and starts will do nothing to stop the now-received wisdom that higher interest rates, higher prices, (and the impact of the cap on the mortgage tax deduction) has caused this most important cyclical market to cool. On the other hand, they aren’t evidence of any intensifying downturn. While we wait for FRED, here’s the Census Bureau’s graphic representation of...

Good payroll reports will probably coninue until next spring One of my continuing mantras over the years has been that spending leads hiring. It is simply demonstrable fact that, going back over 50 years, upward or downward changes in trend in consumer spending as revealed by retail sales, happen before similar changes in trend by jobs. It turns out that there’s an even close correlation when we substitute aggregate payrolls (jobs x hours x pay) for the...