Tag Archives: US/Global Economics

by New Deal democrat Weekly Indicators for November 12 – 16 at Seeking Alpha My Weekly Indicators piece is up at Seeking Alpha. If my reference frames are well- constructed, economic trends ought to start out in the long leading forecast, then start to show up in the short leading forecast, and finally make it through to the coincident nowcast. Almost 6 months ago, the long leading forecast changed from positive to neutral for the first time.  It’s been...

MbS Guilty! According to the top stories in both the New York Times and Washington Post this morning, somebody in the CIA has leaked that Mohammed bin Salman (MbS) ordered the assassination of journalist Jamal Khashoggi.  Of course no sensible observer is remotely surprised, but the Trump administration had been working mightily to deny this obvious fact, with reports surfacing that they were plotting to send Turkish cleric Gulen to Turkey as...

by New Deal democrat Credit remains loose, but big borrowers aren’t interested; real consumer spending may be stalling We interrupt this coverage of the ongoing Trump Boom (c) to advise you that two more long leading indicators, while still positive, are showing at least some weaknesses.  This story is up at Seeking Alpha. As usual, reading the story over there is both informative for you and a little $$$ revwarding for me. Also, as an aside, once...

With October consumer price inflation reported, let’s update a few metrics. First of all, while the YoY% growth in real wages increased: real wages were unchanged month over month, as both nominal wages and consumer inflation both increased by +0.3%: Real wages have still not even increased 1% in the last 2 1/2 years. Because, as I noted yesterday, so much of consumer inflation, and therefore real wages, depends on gas...

I have a new article that hopefully will get posted by Seeking Alpha later today.  In the meantime … Two weeks ago I wrote an article establishing a manufacturing baseline for my forecast of an economic slowdown by about the middle of next year. I concluded that by saying: the first thing I am looking for is decelerating growth which will show up in a reading below 15 in the average of  Regional Fed reports, and below 60 in ISM new orders. The ISM...

Changes in labor bargaining power take up to a decade to be fully effective Sorry for the recent lack of posting on economic matters. Partly it is ennui, and partly it is a near total dearth of data in between the employment report a week ago Friday and tomorrow’s CPI report.  Even a couple of quarterly series I usually report on have been inexplicably delayed. In the meantime, here is a graph from Jared Bernstein that is worth some extended comment. It...

Is It Not The Economy, Stupid? On many Mondays I indulge in taking Robert J. Samuelson to task after his regular Washington Post column of the day.  Today he was almost right, or if you prefer, even mostly right.  This one was titled “It’s Not the Economy, Stupid” about the outcome of the midterm election, as well as a delayed comment on the 2016 presidential election (although, of course, HRC did win the popular vote by three million popular votes, if...

The Death of Shame In any society not in a state of civil war, shame is a powerful force, perhaps the most powerful.  Individuals or organizations caught cheating, lying or otherwise doing evil, when exposed and called out, are expected to be embarrassed.  They should repent their sins and promise to make amends.  Other than pure coercion, what else can disarm those who violate the norms of society? Evolutionary biologists tell us shame is hardwired not...

by New Deal democrat Weekly Indicators for November 5 – 9 at Seeking Alpha My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. Interest rattes rose even further this past week, portend further erosion in the housing market. As usual, not only does reading this post give you of the up-to-the-moment view of the economy, but it also put a little extra $$$ in my pocket.

Big producer price increase in October – if a trend – is a problem In a light data week, this morning’s report on producer prices is certainly worth mentioning.  As you may have read elsewhere, headline producer prices rose +0.6% in October, the highest reading in 6 years. The below graph compares that (blue) with commodity prices (red): As you can see, commodity price increases were within the normal range. The difference happens when we break...