Tag Archives: US/Global Economics

Long leading indicators embedded in Q2 GDP suggest a recession is near at hand  – by New Deal democrat Where does the economy go from here?  If it’s not in recession, it isn’t doing much better. There are two components of GDP which are helpful in finding out what lies ahead: real residential fixed investment (housing) and proprietors income (a proxy for business profits). Both of these have long and good track records as helping forecast the...

Increasing trend in initial claims continues; on track to signal recession in November  – by New Deal democrat Initial jobless claims declined 5,000 to 256,000 last week. But hold your celebrations, because that was because last week’s 251,000 was revised 10,000 higher! The 4 week average rose another 6,250 to 249,250, a nearly 8 month high.  On the positive side, continuing claims declined 25,000 to 1,359,000: Typically, but not always,...

by Joseph Joyce The Increasing Debtor Status of the U.S. The Net International Investment Position (NIIP) of a country reflects the difference between foreign assets owned by domestic residents and domestic liabilities held by foreign residents. The difference, positive or negative, determines a country’s status as an international creditor or debtor. The U.S. position, which has been negative for many years, has deteriorated sharply in recent...

“The Grain Deal,” Econospeak by Barkley Rosser Finally we have something sort of hopeful happen in the war in Ukraine that might help alleviate problems it has generated for much of the world.  A deal has been struck to allow Ukrainian grain to be exported from Odesa and two smaller ports near it across the Black Sea and out into the Mediterranean to world markets.  With something like 20 tons of grain, mostly wheat, sitting there for some...

The Eurozone is not an optimum currency area. The Euro as such was a bad idea to begin with. Notably, this was the standard view of US economists. The North American argument (originating in Canada) was that a currency should be used in an area within which people are willing to move to get a job. The original argument was that the US dollar zone and Canadian dollar zone were not optimal areas and that Western Canada should have the same currency as...

I have discovered that there are still people who think that adopting the Euro was a good idea, or at least not a bad idea, or at least not a catastrophe. They seem to have decided that the Greek fiscal tragedy is a minor issue. I will leave it out of the discussion. My view is that the Euro *and* the Stability and Growth Pact have worked together to endanger the project of European integration. There are strange developments of far right,...

There is a lot of noise about the shortage of semiconductors. I am not going to explain it all here. You will find the explanation of manufacture in the articles. It takes weeks to grow wafers and then Fab semi-conductors. Not maintaining orders for semiconductors creates shortage when production starts up again. The purchase of semiconductors has changed since I was in it in 2008 chasing automotive OEM caused shortages. Growing the wafers could...

“Ford Plans to Gut Workforce, Cut Thousands” – 24/7 Wall St. (247wallst.com), Douglas A. McIntyre Gasoline or electric is the question for product. Ford could take a gradual change to electric from gasoline. It does not appear to be in the cards for Ford CEO Jim Farley. The Ford CEO wants to get a jump on technology and be a leader in improving the environment improve Ford margins according to “24/7 Wall St. And they are going to do this how? Ford...

Increasing trend in jobless claims continues; on track to give recession warning in November Initial jobless claims rose another 7,000 to 251,000 last week, an 8 month high. The 4 week average rose 4,500 to 240,500, a 7+ month high.  And continuing claims also rose 51,000 to 1,384,000, which is 78,000 above their 50 year low set on May 21: Three weeks ago I noted that reviewing the entire 50+ year history of initial claims, “there are almost...

A collection of interesting reads, news, and articles from the last week. Healthcare “Fauci to Retire by End of Biden’s First Term” (medscape.com), “Biden’s chief medical officer (Fauci), who has also been director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases since 1984, told Politico he is not planning to wait for COVID-19 to disappear before retiring.” “Three Key Strategies for Combatting Nurse Turnover” | MedPage Today,...