Tag Archives: US/Global Economics

The US military has ideas about how Taiwan can protect itself from a possible Chinese invasion (and therefore deter that invasion) I think they are very good ideas. I think that the proposed program would markedly reduce the threat of a PRC invasion of Taiwan, which is the most alarming threat currently faced by the US and its allies (including the allied country Taiwan, which the US does not recognize). I ask why is this program which is well...

This “Letter from an American” author Prof. Heather has a different spin to it. Prof. Heather is discussing OPEC and the impact it is going to have on the US as well as other counties not having the wealth we have. One thing I did not know is, Russia is the Vice-Chair of OPEC. Or Putin has his input to OPEC. Leading up to the MBS ‘s decision to cut oil production, the market was stabilizing and prices were dropping. “October 5, 2022,” Letters...

Six billion. I have written and rewritten the first line of this over and over and over again. Six billion. That is the amount of current US dollars American farmers have to come up with this year as fertilizer prices hit highs not seen since 2008, on top of higher prices last year. The difference is that in 2008 we had a financial meltdown, a run on energy markets, and global calamity. This year, we have supply crunches due to war, restrictions,...

Once again, automotive is building inventory dues to parts shortages. Semiconductors appear to be an issue again or the issue never went away. Much of this is due to automotive OEMs trying to drive parts cost down to the tiers. Many of them are running tight budgets due to the OEMs. They will not hold inventory unless the OEMs commit to it. The other side of this being Ford splitting it business into two parts, traditional fuel vehicles and Electric...

One Handed Economist David Zetland reviews a review by The Economist of the book Superabundance. I admit I did not read the book or even scan it. I will do so later when I have some time to do so. The subtitle kind of gives it away as it promotes (“The Story of) Population Growth, Innovation and Human Flourishing on an Infinitely Bountiful Planet.” In the US there is a lot of noise about legal immigrants coming to the US. Our replacement rate has...

Report From Moscow by Barkley Rosser  My wife, Marina, has returned from a two and a half week to Moscow to visit her 93 year old mother.  She almost got bumped from her Turkish Airlines flight out of Moscow through Istanbul, but her travel agent managed to get her back on.  Very glad she is back. Anyway, a few first hand current reports. Yes, in terms of living standards, in Moscow most things are operating and there are plenty of goods in...

Any given recession, food assistance needs increase. In an inflationary environment where purchasing power declines, food assistance needs increase. During a pandemic, well you get the idea. What is lost in that narrative is that the foods available to the general public, are same available to food assistance beneficiaries. The only difference is the bank account that it’s draws through the debit card, and a few other stipulations like beer and...

by Joseph Joyce (Capital Ebbs and Flows) Has the Third Era of Globalization Ended? Behind the headlines forecasting a global economic recession there is another narrative about the end of globalization. This reflects political tensions over trade, the impact of the pandemic on global supply chains and the shutdown of economic ties with Russia. But dating the beginning and end of the most recent era of the integration of global markets poses...

I really have to write about macroeconomics given the drama across the Channel in the UK. The story so far is that New Prime Minister Liz Truss and Chancellor of the Exchequer Kwasi Kwarteng have managed to spook money managers by threatening to cut their taxes . Kwarteng proposed a mini budget cutting the top marginal tax rate (etc). The Pound depreciated not quite reaching parity with the dollar (fell bellow 104 cents though) and the 10 year...

I’m not a macro person, I can’t even play one on TV.  That said, from 20,000 feet, with my admittedly blurry glasses on, I really don’t understand why the Fed and other central banks are pushing so hard on the brakes.  What follows are questions, skeptical about rate hikes, but genuinely questions. What exactly would have happened if the Fed had raised rates more moderately, or even not at all?  Would inflation have spiraled out of control?  It’s...