Tag Archives: US/Global Economics

New home sales increasing trend continues – for now; expect a major pullback in coming months With mortgage rates having risen sharply (as of this morning Mortgage News Daily has the 30-year rate up to 4.19%, the highest in nearly three years), we are at an important moment for the housing market. In that context, let’s look at this morning’s new home sales report for January. There are two important things to know about new home sales: (1) it...

Every week my mailbox fills up with articles. Some of which I subscribe too and pay for and others which are freebies. The freebies are slowly disappearing. The first article is an old one and has been on AB before and discussed by Maggie Mahar. Atul asks if healthcare is a right. Maggie and Shadowfax (an ER doctor) would argue it is more a moral obligation. That discussion can be found here: Is Health Care a Right? – The Health Care Blog. Further on...

New 50+ year low in continuing jobless claims [Programming note: I will post about new home sales later this morning.]Initial claims (blue) declined 17,000 to 232,000 (vs. the pandemic low of 188,000 on December 4). The 4 week average (red) declined 7,250 to 236,250 (vs. the pandemic low of 199,750 on December 25). Continuing claims (gold, right scale) declined 112,000 to 1,476,000 (not just a new pandemic low, but the lowest number in over 50...

Vladimir V. Putin Loses His Mind And Becomes A War Criminal Russian President Vladimir V. Putin has just announced a “special military operation” to “de-Nazify the Ukrainian government” so as to halt the supposed “genocide” being committed against Russian speakers in Ukraine.  There is not a shred of justification for any of this.  The extreme nationalist fascist groups in Ukraine do not support and are not part of the current Ukrainian...

A Story Treehugger has been spotlighting this famous Andy Singer cartoon since 2007. “Treehugger, Sustainability for All” received a boost from Slate in and around 2006 when I was a “starred-commenter” (don’t ask) at Slate’s “Moneybox (Daniel Gross)” and “Best of the Fray.” Slate management decided to blow the place up and eliminated the comments sections such as BOTF which contained some the best commentaries on the internet at the...

Russia has just attacked Ukraine. US policymakers seem to agree that we should impose severe economic sanctions (but definitely have no US boots on Ukrainian ground). What can the US do without firing a shot ? I think the US can impose extreme costs on Russia (hurting Russians other than Putin who are not to blame and will be innocent victims — tough luck). In general sanctions have not achieved– well much except the defunct Iranian JCPOA....

The Minsky Moment In Eastern Ukraine  Oh, I cannot resist taking that phrase from a recent Economist article about the separatist Donbass republics, the Luhansk Peoples’ Republic (LPR), and the Donetsk Peoples’ Republic (DPR). The official recognition by V.V. Putin of their independence brings about the end of the Minsk II Accord negotiations that have been going on since 2015. These accords were supposed to bring peace to eastern Ukraine, but...

RJS, MarketWatch 666, Retail Sales Rose 3.8% in January; Prior Months’ Revisions Boost 4th Quarter GDP Seasonally adjusted retail sales increased 3.8% in January after retail sales for December were revised a bit lower, but November sales were revised somewhat higher…the Advance Retail Sales Report for January (pdf) from the Census Bureau estimated that our seasonally adjusted retail and food services sales totaled $649.8 billion during the...

by New Deal democrat Weekly Indicators for February 14 – 18 at Seeking Alpha My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. As the Omicron tsunami recedes, what is still present is high commodity prices (not least of which is gasoline), and mortgage rates at levels that have not been seen in close to 3 years. The overall picture is of an economy that is very slowly decelerating, or worsening, depending on whether you feel...

A housing warning: affordability, at long last, is approaching its housing bubble nadir If current price and mortgage trends hold, we are about 6 to 12 months away from matching the very worst housing affordability at the peak of the housing bubble. Let’s start with a comparison of existing home sales (blue, reported today for January), new home sales (gray), and mortgage rates for the past 16 months:  Note that the NAR doesn’t permit...