Tag Archives: US/Global Economics

Industrial production now exceeds pre-pandemic level Industrial production, the King of Coincident Indicators, was reported this morning for August and was positive in a particularly significant way. Total production increased 0.4% in August, and the manufacturing component increased 0.1%. Nothing particularly special about that; in fact the manufacturing component was a little weak compared with most recent months. Additionally, the July...

“US crude supplies at a 23 month low, gasoline supplies at a 22 month low,” Focus on Fracking, Blogger and Commenter RJS The Latest US Oil Supply and Disposition Data from the EIA US oil data from the US Energy Information Administration for the week ending September 3rd indicated that after major decreases in our oilfield production, our refinery throughput, our oil imports and our oil exports due to Hurricane Ida, we needed to withdraw oil...

July’s Wholesale Sales Were Up 2.0%; Wholesale Inventories Were Up 0.6%, MarketWatch 666, RJS Monthly Wholesale Trade Report for July 2021 (census.gov)The July report on Wholesale Trade, Sales and Inventories (pdf) from the Census Bureau estimated that the seasonally adjusted value of wholesale sales was at $601.3 billion in July, up 2.0 percent (±0.4 percent) from the revised June level, and up 23.7 percent (±1.6 percent) from wholesale sales of...

Norway’s Climate Dilemma Carlos Joly, a finance-and-climate consultant, has a piece today on the upcoming election in Norway, one of the world’s major exporters of oil and gas.  To its credit, Norway puts its earnings in a fund to support future generations after its deposits are exhausted, known to economists as the Hartwick Rule.  That’s great for economic sustainability in Norway, but what about the threat its fossil fuel industry poses to the...

August Producer Price Index Sets New YoY Record Increases for Final Demand Goods, Final Demand Services, and a 46 year High for Prices of Intermediate Goods; MarketWatch 666, Commenter RJS Producer Price Index by Commodity: Final Demand: Final Demand Goods (PPIFDG) | FRED | St. Louis Fed (stlouisfed.org)The seasonally adjusted Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand rose 0.7% in August, as prices for finished wholesale goods rose 1.0% while...

July JOLTS report shows market still out of equilibrium, no additional hiring from early termination of benefits This morning’s JOLTS report for July is particularly important, because July was the first full month after a number of GOP-controlled States terminated enhanced unemployment benefits, on the theory that they were excessive and were coddling idle workers. Thus we should be seeing a big drop in unfilled job openings, as those people...

Jobless claims blow away the Delta wave (but beware Labor Day seasonality) This morning’s initial jobless claims report makes it shockingly evident that the Delta wave has had no appreciable effect on at least the “firing” side of the jobs market (vs. the “hiring” side, where it might have). Initial claims declined 35,000 to 310,000, and the 4-week average also declined 16,750 to 339,500, both yet more pandemic lows: By way of...

A little-noticed part of Biden’s covid address last night covered testing.  He promised to use the Defense Production Act to ramp up production of rapid tests, to make at-home tests available through retailers at cost, and to increase the availability of free pharmacy-based tests. (A few details here.) Making testing faster, cheaper, and easily accessible seems like such an obvious thing to do.  In fact, it was an obvious thing to do months ago. ...

MarketWatch 666’s RJS: 5th record in a row; job openings have risen 62% so far this year . . . Here is the Fred graph. Job Openings: Total Nonfarm (JTSJOL) | FRED | St. Louis Fed (stlouisfed.org)Despite record highs, hiring is down and layoffs are up . . . Something is clearly broken. July Job Openings at Record High after June Record Revised Higher; Hiring Down, Job Quitting  and  Layoffs  Higher The Job Openings and Labor Turnover...

The unemployment rate is not *uniquely* overestimating the “true” employment situation Bill McBride a/k/a Calculated Risk put up an entry over the weekend positing that the employment situation is worse than the unemployment rate indicates. He bases this on the expectation that the overall labor force was expected to grow by 100,000 a month in 2020 and this year, whereas as of last month there were a little more than 2.9 million less people...