Here are some things I think I am thinking about: 1) The 3 Most Important Charts Today We posted a new 3 Minute Macro video about the three most important investing charts today. I discuss last week’s employment report and why it changed market sentiment so substantially. Long story short – falling wages reduce the odds of a 1970’s style outcome. I’ve been saying that for the last few months, but the data is really starting to confirm that view. Yesterday’s update to the...

Todd attracted attention in 1976 when, at age 25, he predicted the fall of the Soviet Union, based on indicators such as increasing infant mortality rates: La chute finale: Essais sur la décomposition de la sphère Soviétique (The Final Fall: An Essay on the Decomposition of the Soviet Sphere). — WikipediaEmmanuel Todd is the author of After the Empire: The Breakdown of the American Order (2001). TASS (Russian state media)US may lose control of world finance due to conflict in Ukraine —...

Prime Minister Modi opened up the virtual Voice Of Global South Summit on Thursday by introducing India’s official approach to the emerging Multipolar World Order to those representatives of the over 120 developing countries who were invited to participate in this historic event. It can be summarized as the 4R global agenda since the four operative terms begin with that letter and involve ways in which to make International Relations more democratic, equal, just, and predictable. Here’s what...

Is an economics degree really worth it? .[embedded content] A science that doesn’t self-reflect on its own history and asks important methodological and science-theoretical questions about its own activity is in dire straits. Already back in 1991, a commission chaired by Anne Krueger and including people like Kenneth Arrow, Edward Leamer, and Joseph Stiglitz, reported from their own experience “that it is an underemphasis on the ‘linkages’ between tools,...

This commentary by Charles Gaba was up earlier this year. What Charles is doing is issuing a warning about this batch of Covid. People have tossed caution to the wind, not boosting for less than adequate reasons, not practicing safe social practices, and not making up in public crowds. “Say hello to XBB.1.5: The Red/Blue COVID Death Rate Divide is no more . . . for the moment,” ACA Signups, Charles Gaba As noted in November: The graph...

Consumer inflation remains dominated by gas prices (good) and shelter (bad)  – by New Deal democrat Declining gas prices continue to do wondrous things for the economy. In December they declined from roughly $3.50 to $3.10/gallon. Meanwhile the phantom menace of Owners’ Equivalent Rent continues to drag “core” inflation higher. Details below. Total inflation: -0.1%m/m , +6.4% YoY (12 month+ low), +0.9% since June, 1.8% annual rate Core...

Blog We can’t fix the NHS crisis until we fix our social care crisis With 165,000 unfilled vacancies in social care, we urgently need to recruit people to work in the sector to resolve the crisis By Jeevun Sandher 13 January 2023 Right now...

Publications A care workforce fit for Britain Spreading high-quality, well-paid care jobs nationwide By Jeevun Sandher, Daniel Button 13 January 2023 Download the report...

The 25 Best Econometrics Blogs Yours truly, of course, feels truly honored to find himself on the list of the world’s 25 best econometrics blogs. 1. Bruno Rodrigues 7. Eran Raviv Blog Statistics and Econometrics 9. How the (Econometric) Sausage is Made 14. Lars P Syll Pålsson Syll received a Ph.D. in economic history in 1991 and a Ph.D. in economics in 1997, both at Lund University. He became an associate professor in economic history in 1995 and has since...