– by New Deal democrat I’ve been writing for the past number of weeks that we were approaching the acid test for the hypothesis that unresolved post-pandemic seasonality explained the sharp increase in jobless claims in the summer. This week we are fully immersed in the 6+ month comparison period where initial claims in the past two years averaged between 200,000-220,000. So, first the good news: initial claims declined -4,000 to 218,000, to...

Looking at business firms by age, what type of firms create jobs, and in what industry. In manufacturing, it would be older firms (eleven years or older) creating the most jobs. Older firms of eleven or more years are also creating more jobs in Retail. As we look at each category, older firms play a distinct role in job creation. The only time we see a distinct difference is in Accommodations where start-ups and one- to five-year-old firms have an...

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from Peter Radford What?  Surely not!  How dare he suggest such a thing. What, you are correct in asking, am I talking about? The recent speech by a Department of Justice official who dared suggest that it is getting quite difficult to find a truly neutral technocratic expert to give testimony in court.  Imagine the cheek.  How dare he question ‘expertise’.  Especially economic expertise, which is, surely, the gold standard. Why did he say what he said? Because academics are apparently so...

Louis DeJoy, the Trump-appointed head of the United States Postal Service (USPS), is screwing with the 2024 election. His failure could impact the outcome of a close election. If it is close. With the help of a former NC postmaster and Steve Hutkins of Save the Post Office, we have been tracking the lack of progress with the USPS. Keep in mind, the USPS goal is to deliver mail to every segment of the population, no matter where they live, and on a...

Excellent reporting by Motor Trend revealing how a new tech radio gives you music and can also eaves-drop on you. The result of eaves dropping is to schedule commercials that may appeal to your interests. The radio then will program commercial ads that may suit your interests. Maybe by introducing something new? What do you think? Can you be persuaded by your radio pitching an ad for a new car after hearing you discuss cars with a passenger? A...

I wanted to put up the entire report. It is just too long. However, the link is there for addition reading to back up the Executive Summary. Angry Bear has been reporting on the rising costs of pharmaceuticals. Hopefully, the Executive Summary will add to Angry Bears knowledge base. PBM Report Final with Redactions House.gov Report Pharmacy Benefit Managers’ (PBMs) role as intermediaries between drug manufacturers and health insurance...

Even if you disagree, I think there is a lot to learn from this. 

 – by New Deal democrat With this morning’s release of new home sales, we have all of the important housing data releases for the month. So let’s integrate that into the overall housing outlook. Let’s begin with my usual  overview that new home sales are the single most leading metric for the entire sector, but they suffer from the fact that they are extremely volatile and also heavily revised. So it is best to look at them in comparison with...