The Angry Bear

The long leading forecast for 2024 at Seeking Alpha  – by New Deal democrat A couple of times a year I update my long leading forecast. With the latest GDP and Senior Loan Officer Survey data, there is enough to take a look at what the next 12 months probably have in store. This article is up at Seeking Alpha.  Below, a brief Introduction of what New Deal democrat is featuring. As usual, a very well detailed article by NDd. The Long...

Justice Clarence Thomas asked why there weren’t more examples of states disqualifying candidates under the 14th Amendment after the Civil War. There have been and I am confident Clarence knows this. Rather than face the issue of who can disqualify trump, Clarence chose a moment when he can shine by asking a question and then insisting it be answered. Indeed, he is probably the weakest justice on the SCOTUS bench. Last line, Section 3 of the...

It never ends as commercial interests keep trying to horn in on healthcare for the old geezers like myself. Except, it is not person related healthcare. It is related to the size of your wallet. More on Medicare Advantage by Jake Johnson at Common Dreams. ~~~~~~~~ A right-wing coalition’s proposal to make Medicare Advantage the default enrollment option would be a “clear handout to the private insurance industry,” said one critic. ‘Hell No’:...

Eleven* Years of #ACA Medicaid Expansion in One Image, ACA Signups, Charles Gaba I just posted a colorful graph which tracked ACA Qualified Health Plan (QHP) enrollment over eleven years of Open Enrollment Periods. Below I’ve done the same thing for ACA Medicaid Expansion. The data comes from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services quarterly Medicaid Budget & Expenditure System reports. *Unfortunately, the MBES reports only...

January 2024 consumer inflation: still a tug of war between gas and housing  – by New Deal democrat As it has been for going on two years, consumer inflation has boiled down to a contest of strength between energy (mainly gasoline), which peaked in June 2022 and roughed in June 2023, and housing, which peaked in early 2023 and has been gradually disinflating since. The headlines, as you presumably already know, are that total inflation rose...

but came in above Wall Street’s expectations, another sign that the Federal Reserve’s path to interest-rate cuts is far from settled. The Labor Department reported Tuesday that consumer prices rose 3.1% in January from a year earlier, versus a December gain of 3.4%. That marked the lowest reading since June. Inflation at 3.1% Reflects “Stubborn Pricing Pressure, Clouding Outlook for Fed Rate Cuts,” msn.com, WSJ article. Open Thread February 6...

This has been going on several years now and Angry Bear has been featuring Steve Hutkins from Save The Post Office and also former North Carolina Postmaster Mark Jamison. The battle goes on as big business through Louis DeJoy attempt to bring their vision of how a Post Office should be managed. The USPS is meant to go anywhere and everywhere mail needs to be delivered. It is not supposed to eliminate delivery to places farfetched and out of the way...

This is supposed to be the experts bringing data to the public. Prestigious name coupled with a doctorate and Masters. Tied to exceptional universities. So what gives? Read on as this information was used in court and cited by a judge. — Two of the studies were cited by a federal judge in the case against the abortion pill. Publisher Retracts Three Abortion Studies, MedPage Today, Rachael Robertson February 8, 2024 Sage Journals...

Aggregate payrolls vs. total withholding taxes paid: which one has been telling the truer tale?  – by New Deal democrat The drought in new data continues for today. So I wanted to take a further look at the two measures of total payrolls I discussed on Friday, one of which has been of some concern. One is total aggregate payrolls, which is part of the Establishment survey portion of the jobs report each month, and the other is total tax...

I want to respond to some of the comments on my last post and sharpen my own thinking by gaming out some ways the campaign might evolve.  I assume our goal is to have a Democrat – very probably Biden – beat Trump.  The question is how to maximize our odds of achieving this goal. Bill Kristol argues today that Biden should step down now and allow an open contest for the democratic nomination.  This is debatable advice (as he acknowledges).  As Seth...