The Angry Bear

July jobs report: almost across the board deterioration in leading sectors  – by New Deal democrat My focus remains on whether jobs growth continues to decelerate, and whether the leading indicators, particularly manufacturing and construction jobs, as well as the unemployment rate (which leads going into recessions) have meaningfully deteriorated. Almost all of these items did deteriorate in July. Here’s my in-depth synopsis....

Some Points . . . Healthcare services slight increases as a share of total consumer spending in the quarter, rising from 15.9 percent to 16.0 percent of total consumption and down from 17+ percent. Hopes are healthcare stays at that rate. Structure investment increases at a 9.7 percent annual rate after growing at a 15.8 percent annual rate over two qtrs. Driven by factory construction growing at a 94.0 percent annual rate. Equipment investment...

Some Points . . . Healthcare services slight increases as a share of total consumer spending in the quarter, rising from 15.9 percent to 16.0 percent of total consumption and down from 17+ percent. Hopes are healthcare stays at that rate. Structure investment increases at a 9.7 percent annual rate after growing at a 15.8 percent annual rate over two qtrs. Driven by factory construction growing at a 94.0 percent annual rate. Equipment investment...

Delightful story on how US pharmaceutical companies shift profits overseas. And US citizens are paying the highest prices globally for lifesaving meds which other countries our paying roughly one third. Pharma is also shifting their profits overseas and minimizing US taxes or tax avoidance. One way to avoid taxes is to move intellectual property to the country of choice or the no-tax jurisdictions in the Caribbean and Europe. Parking intellectual...

Delightful story on how US pharmaceutical companies shift profits overseas. And US citizens are paying the highest prices globally for lifesaving meds which other countries our paying roughly one third. Pharma is also shifting their profits overseas and minimizing US taxes or tax avoidance. One way to avoid taxes is to move intellectual property to the country of choice or the no-tax jurisdictions in the Caribbean and Europe. Parking intellectual...

Jobless claims: a good example of why my forecasting discipline demands a confirmed trend  – by New Deal democrat Initial jobless claims for the last week of July rose 6,000 to 227,000. The 4 week average decreased -5,500 to 228,250. Continuing claims, with a one week lag, rose 21,000 to 1.7 million: The YoY% change is much more important for forecasting purposes. There, initial claims were up 4.1%, the 4 week average up 5.8%, and continuing...

Jobless claims: a good example of why my forecasting discipline demands a confirmed trend  – by New Deal democrat Initial jobless claims for the last week of July rose 6,000 to 227,000. The 4 week average decreased -5,500 to 228,250. Continuing claims, with a one week lag, rose 21,000 to 1.7 million: The YoY% change is much more important for forecasting purposes. There, initial claims were up 4.1%, the 4 week average up 5.8%, and continuing...

This is an abbreviated version of a Canadian trial which examines whether eliminating out-of-pocket costs would improve the health of people taking the medications by making drugs less costly. The greater impact was amongst lower income participants who may not take drugs as prescribed to lengthen a refill timetable. The elimination of out-of-pocket medication costs resulted in lower and reduced total health spending by a median of $1641 and a mean...

This is an abbreviated version of a Canadian trial which examines whether eliminating out-of-pocket costs would improve the health of people taking the medications by making drugs less costly. The greater impact was amongst lower income participants who may not take drugs as prescribed to lengthen a refill timetable. The elimination of out-of-pocket medication costs resulted in lower and reduced total health spending by a median of $1641 and a mean...

Survey (NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist) finds 53% of Americans think addressing climate crisis should be given priority and 72% of Republicans say the economy should be. June and July were, by many measures, the hottest such months on record. Wildfires are raging across the world, in the US notably in California and Nevada. Smoke from fires in Canada has blotted out the sun on the US east coast this year. Much of the US is threatened by rising seas....