The Angry Bear

I lived in Michigan for 27 years having moved from Madison Wisconsin. If I had my choice, we would have stayed in Madison. It was damn cold in the winter. We were still able to do things though. Michigan was not quite the same. It was never really home for us. Just too many things not right. The politics were deeply Republican in our county. The roads were in poor to fair condition, taxes were too low, and the county favored business. Voting...

Jobless claims: still holding steady  – by New Deal democrat Initial jobless claims rose slightly, by 7,000, from one week ago to 225,000. The 4 week average declined -250 to 218,750. Continuing claims also rose slightly, by 6,000, to 1,493,000: This is right in the middle of where claims have been for the last 6 months. If anything, there might be a slight rising trend in the last month. The jobs market remains very tight. Aside from...

“Open thread Nov. 8, 2022 Election Day,” Angry Bear, angry bear blog.

Coronavirus dashboard for November 8: the new alphabet soup of variants fails to generate a new wave (so far)  – by New Deal democrat Biobot has not updated since late last week, showing COVID particles at or near 6 month lows both nationwide: and in all 4 Census regions: As expected, the CDC’s variant update last Friday showed that BA.5 was down to 40% of all cases, with the alphabet soup of new variants descended from BA.2 and BA.5...

“U.S.A. the Envy of World After Ten Billion Dollars in Campaign Ads Changes Almost Nothing,” The New Yorker, Andy Borowitz. Three questions in a row commentary. Were you convinced? Did you wonder about who was trying to influence the election the most? Which ones, Republicans, Democrats, Polling firms, TV News, Magazines, News Papers, the masked militia at the polling boxes, trump??? UNITED STATES OF AMERICA (The Borowitz Report) – The...

“November 9, 2022,” Letters from an American, Prof. Heather Cox Richardson, (substack.com) Yesterday was a good day for democracy. Americans turned out to defend our principles from those who denied our right to choose our own leaders. There was little violence, the election appears to have gone smoothly, and there are few claims of “fraud.” As I write tonight, control of the House and Senate is still not clear, but some outlines are now...

Some Big Picture comments on the 2022 midterm elections  – by New Deal democrat No economic news today while we await tomorrow’s big inflation report (Hint: shelter inflation is going to continue to be the big driver); and I think maybe we had a little political event yesterday, so let me make a few brief comments. 1. From the beginning of this year, I told everybody who would listen that (1) the Supreme Court was really and truly going to...

Deceleration and deterioration, but no downturn signaled  – by New Deal democrat No economic news of note today or tomorrow, except the (very late) Q3 Senior Loan Officers Report this afternoon, which will tell us about the state of credit, but is anticipated in much more timely – i.e., weekly – fashion by the Chicago Fed’s Financial Conditions Index. So let’s take a look at some noteworthy items from last Friday’s jobs report. As I...

As I write this it is still possible the Democrats will lose control of Congress, with all that entails, but the Democrats did outperform the fundamentals, and it is useful to think about why.  Here is my quick list of possible explanations: Increased partisanship and decreased cross-over voting (see here). Inflation may not be as much of an economic negative as a lot of commentary suggests; maybe unemployment matters more. Voters may be...

Some Good Commentary this week. I would pay attention to the articles on Medicare Advantage. There has been a lot of complaints. If you are on Traditional Medicare, Be careful as they have been switching people over to Advantage Plans without asking. Sounds like the Fed believes people have too much cash in savings according to one article in “Economy.” Lots to read and catch up on in the world. Politics and Law “Regulators Move Against Two...