The Angry Bear

You’re reading the right blog, Presidents‘ Day edition No economic data today due to the Presidents’ Day holiday, so here is something else I ran across over the weekend. Former Federal Reserve Economist Joseph Gagnon critiqued a Paul Krugman column about the cause of inflation. He notes that the causes of this inflation are both supply and demand sided: To which Paul Krugman replied:Yours truly bought into supply chain problems as creating...

RJS, MarketWatch 666, Retail Sales Rose 3.8% in January; Prior Months’ Revisions Boost 4th Quarter GDP Seasonally adjusted retail sales increased 3.8% in January after retail sales for December were revised a bit lower, but November sales were revised somewhat higher…the Advance Retail Sales Report for January (pdf) from the Census Bureau estimated that our seasonally adjusted retail and food services sales totaled $649.8 billion during the...

Libertarian economist Donald Boudreaux began a recent blog post with a quote about the dangers of government censorship, and then offered up this comment:  “Rogan deserves applause for airing ideas about Covid and vaccines that challenge the official “Science.”” Government censorship is dangerous, but this doesn’t mean Rogan should be applauded for credulously (or deliberately) passing on misinformation to his large audience.  Most people...

RJS, MarketWatch 666, Producer Prices Rose 1.0% in January, but Annual Increases are Off the Record Highs The seasonally adjusted Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand rose 1.0% in January, as average prices for finished wholesale goods rose 1.3% while final demand for services rose 0.7% . . . that increase followed a revised 0.4% increase in December, when average prices for finished wholesale goods fell 0.1%, while margins of final...

by New Deal democrat Weekly Indicators for February 14 – 18 at Seeking Alpha My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. As the Omicron tsunami recedes, what is still present is high commodity prices (not least of which is gasoline), and mortgage rates at levels that have not been seen in close to 3 years. The overall picture is of an economy that is very slowly decelerating, or worsening, depending on whether you feel...

A housing warning: affordability, at long last, is approaching its housing bubble nadir If current price and mortgage trends hold, we are about 6 to 12 months away from matching the very worst housing affordability at the peak of the housing bubble. Let’s start with a comparison of existing home sales (blue, reported today for January), new home sales (gray), and mortgage rates for the past 16 months:  Note that the NAR doesn’t permit...

by Joseph Joyce Risk and FDI While FDI flows recovered in 2021 from the previous year’s decline, not all countries benefitted from the increase. UNCTAD reported that almost three-quarters of global FDI flows in 2021 occurred in advanced economies, and China and other Asian economies recorded the largest increases amongst the emerging markets and developing economies. Multinational companies are evaluating the course of the pandemic in those...

Housing permits jump; the last hurrah before mortgage rates bite? This morning’s report on January housing permits and starts highlighted the unique divergence between the two. As I have often pointed out, permits are the more leading and less noisy of the two reports, so I usually highlight them, especially single family permits. But in the past year there has been a marked divergence in trend between the two data sets, as permits soared then...

“Labour v capital in the post-lockdown economy,” The Economist. As prices and wages rise, are workers or firms winning? Pulling a brief article from The Economist. Unlike 2008, Labor is surviving due to stimulus packages in 2020/2021, which petered out in 2008 leaving low wages and restrictive Unemployment Benefits. “An economy-wide measure of corporate margins is rising fast. Dario Perkins of TS Lombard, a financial-services firm, breaks...

Herbert Marcuse and Planned Obsolescence “Our whole economy is based on planned obsolescence, and everybody who can read without moving his lips should know it by now. We make good products, we induce people to buy them, and then next year we deliberately introduce something that will make those products old fashioned, out of date, obsolete. Planned obsolescence is the desire to own something a little newer and a little better a little sooner than...