Cullen Roche: Pragmatic Capitalism

Well, it looks like it’s going to be another year of Zoom calls so what better way to start it off than a podcast recorded on a Zoom call. I joined Stig and Preston on The Investor’s Podcast again and we covered a lot of ground including: – Why money supply expansion is not equal to inflation– Understanding the new rules of bond investing in today’s inflation and interest rate environment– How to protect your portfolio against inflation– Whether there is a rational argument for stocks to...

On today’s show, we bring back investment expert, Cullen Roche, to talk about inflation, the state of the economy, and whether there is a rational argument for stocks trading at 50x earnings. Cullen is the father of Pragmatic Capitalism, the author of multiple investing books, and the regular guest of Bloomberg and major financial news outlets. He has also minced hundreds of millions of dollars for the past two decades and is always a wealth of information. IN THIS EPISODE,...

On today’s show, we bring back investment expert, Cullen Roche, to talk about inflation, the state of the economy, and whether there is a rational argument for stocks trading at 50x earnings. Cullen is the father of Pragmatic Capitalism, the author of multiple investing books, and the regular guest of Bloomberg and major financial news outlets. He has also minced hundreds of millions of dollars for the past two decades and is always a wealth of information. IN THIS EPISODE,...

In college I was a registered Republican. After I graduated I registered as a Democrat. And a few years ago I registered as an Independent. I guess I just couldn’t ever figure out which tribe I belonged to – which network I wanted to associate with. The last 8 years have been interesting to me mainly because I feel like I’ve watched two competing network effects trying to convince one another that their network is better and the more they can demean, retain and recruit others the more...

One of the long running themes on this website is low inflation and debunking narratives about how very high inflation might be around the corner. I like to work from a first principles understanding, looking at things for what they are and trying to be as objective as possible. Overall, my predictions about low inflation and low interest rates over the last 10 years have been mostly spot-on. Sure, in the last year I’ve been predicting rising inflation due to the huge stimulus measures,...

Here are some things I think I am thinking about. 1) Happy new year! 2020 – what a strange year. Awful in many ways and weirdly good in others. For asset prices it was a nightmare of a year, turned into a great year: Global Stocks: + 16.3% US Stocks: +18.3% US Bonds: +7.5% 1-3 year T-Notes/Bills: +3% 20+ Year T-Bonds: +18.1% Gold: +24.8% On a more personal level this was a year of enormous struggle for many. From the pandemic and its health problems to the constant economic concerns. I...

In this excerpt from our interview with Cullen Roche, we talk about quantitative easing an why most economists were wrong about it causing inflation. FULL EPISODE https://youtu.be/fh5sDAZMD4E FOLLOW CULLEN ON TWITTER https://twitter.com/cullenroche ABOUT THE PODCAST Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor...

The headline of this article is something you’ll very rarely, if ever, see in the financial press. You’re much more likely to hear something along the lines of: “Joe Schmo made $1,000,000 buying Tesla stock” “Jane Doe retired early buying Bitcoin” “If you’d invested $1,000 in Microsoft in 1990….”tual I will not parse words here. THESE ARE ALL HORRIBLE ARTICLES. Most of this is survivorship bias that promotes an imprudent gambler’s mentality. Let me explain. Back in 2015 there was a great...

We took a break from the 2020 podcast world tour due to some engine problems in the old RV, but we got things working again and we’re back. Just kidding of course, I have been mindlessly working from home and jumping on Zoom calls every few hours. This time I spoke with Jack Forehand and Justin Carbonneau from Validea Capital. Jack and Justin are great guys and super open-minded about how to navigate the financial markets. You should check out their website and follow them on Twitter if...

The way economic policy is implemented has undergone some major changes in the past decade. The Federal Reserve's response to the Great Financial Crisis, and the continued quantitative easing in its aftermath, marked a significant change in the way the central bank implements monetary policy. And the fiscal policy response to the current crisis also marked a significant departure from how things have been done in the past. In this episode we are joined by one of our favorite economic...