Lars P. Syll

The pitfalls of randomization The core purpose of RCTs is to use random assignment in order to ensure that the unconfoundedness assumption essential to identifying an average treatment effect holds. In the abstract, this is a strong argument for the method. Problems arise, however, when pristine asymptotic properties confront the muddy realities of field applications and strict control over fully exogenous assignment almost inevitably breaks down, for any...

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Kan etnisk segregation vara gynnsam? I en nyligen publicerad rapport — Goda grannar: en ESO-rapport om grannskapets betydelse för integration — visar författarna att etniskt segregerat boende inte ’per definition’ behöver vara något negativt. Detta konstaterande har fått viss uppmärksamhet i medierna och framställts som något  spännande och nytt … Vid närmare eftertanke är det dock uppenbart att ingen rimligen kan ha ifrågasatt att om man växer upp och bor...

Everything you want to know about MMT One of the positive contributions of MMT, especially from a European point of view, is that it makes it transparently clear why the euro-experiment has been such a monumental disaster. The neoliberal dream of having over-national currencies just doesn’t fit well with reality. When an economy is in a crisis, it must be possible for the state to manage and spend its own money to stabilize the economy. When the euro was...

Rolling in the deep .[embedded content]

.[embedded content] Old flames die hard

Random Walk (student stuff) .[embedded content]

.[embedded content] In den 1980er Jahren hatte die deutsche Rocklegende Udo Lindenberg eine große Anhängerschaft hinter dem Eisernen Vorhang. Besuche zeigten ihm, dass die Menschen in Ostdeutschland im Grunde genommen genauso waren wie im Westen. Er begann Erich Honecker zu bitten, ihm zu erlauben, durch das Land zu touren. Im Sonderzug nach Pankow stellt sich Udo vor, in der DDR zu spielen. Ihm wurde tatsächlich erlaubt, am 25. Oktober 1983 im Palast der Republik in...

The psychopathy of Ayn Rand Now, I don’t care to discuss the alleged complaints American Indians have against this country. I believe, with good reason, the most unsympathetic Hollywood portrayal of Indians and what they did to the white man. They had no right to a country merely because they were born here and then acted like savages. The white man did not conquer this country … Since the Indians did not have the concept of property or property...

Gambler’s ruin — a Markov process analysis (student stuff) .[embedded content] Below you will find a little Python script yours truly made to simulate a betting scenario as a Markov process and visualise how the total amount of money changes over time. This model highlights that, due to a higher probability of losing, the total money will generally trend downwards over a large number of bets. import numpy as np # Define the transition matrix B B =...