Mosler Economics

This has now fallen back to pre covid levels and is likely to go lower after federal unemployment benefits expire: Expiring benefits after next week could leave a serious shortfall: Federal spending and transfer payments have managed to restore consumption to close to pre covid levels:

Last week of federal unemployment benefits: Dallas surprises on the downside, but inline with other indicators:

Fading back to trend: Falling back:

And federal unemployment benefits expire in 2 weeks: Back to about where it was heading pre covid, way below last cycle and notwhere it was expected to be with record low mortgage rates:

Still weak: Coming back slowly, but now oil prices are lower: Lots of spiky commodities like iron ore:

Not the kind of thing that happens when policy is ‘hyperinflationary’ as feared by many:

Weakness continues: Still declining: Same covid dip, bounce, decline pattern:

Retail sales jumped up with the Federal transfer payments and have more recentlystarted to decline as transfer payments subsided. And the remaining Federal unemployment compof $300/week expires Labor day for approximately 7 million beneficiaries: More evidence of a housing decline, even with the lowest rates ever: Lumber and housing often move together: This number is seasonally adjusted, and was higher in July because auto plants typically shut down in July didn’t this year...

Working its way lower: Inflation fears may be fading? Getting worse. I guess low rates aren’t the end all for housing…;)

Steady improvement but still a ways to go: And this doesn’t look good: We’re spending more on net imports which is fundamentally a direct benefit for us, if only our govt. knew the appropriate policy response: Consumer credit growth has picked up as jobs are added and as Federal unemployment benefits expire: These charts have turned down: