Mosler Economics

The mood has changed: Not adjusted for inflation, so in real terms weaker than it looks:

New claims still running high, as are continuing claims. Federal unemployment benefits expire in about 6 weeks: Same pattern- covid dip, recovery, fade, continuing the weakness that traces back to the tariffs:

Covid dip, recovery, and now a decline: Covid dip, recovery, and now sideways at levels of some 25 years ago when there were a lot fewer people: Through June,Saudis caused the big dip and recovery, then attempted to stabilize.The most recent Reuters report suggested price increases vs benchmarks,which is a move to firm prices over time:

This chart is adjusted for inflation. Note the dip, recovery, and leveling off pattern: Dip, recovery, and falling back. Not a good sign: Dip, recovery, leveling off below pre covid levels:

Saudis have set in process a continuous increase in the price of oil.This is exactly what happened in 2008.The Fed’s reaction was to hike rates which only made the inflationary impact worseall triggering the financial panic and crash, with no fiscal relief from a panicked Congressrelying on the Fed until March 09. Only a change in Saudi pricing reverses this: SINGAPORE – Top oil exporter Saudi Arabia has raised the August official selling prices (OSPs) of all crude grades it...

Same pattern only more so: Americans spending more on imports= federal deficit spending that much less inflationary: May exports were $206.0 billion, $1.3 billion more than April exports. May imports were $277.3 billion, $3.5 billion more than April imports. Similar pattern:

Fading- heavy and light have fallen back below pre covid levels:

Seems to showing the same pattern as the US- covid dip, recovery, fade: Same pattern here too: Higher prices bringing out supply? Epic housing shortage may finally be starting to lift (cnbc.com)

Transfers coming down is slowing GDP growth: Housing continues to slow/ the post covid bounce is fading: Making a comeback but still a long way to go. This is a major driver of personal income. It also shows a lot of people are taking jobs, contrary to headlines of worker shortages: This is only through April, but note that new hires are up to about 6 million jobs per month: Another indicator the pace of the post covid recovery is fading:

Consumption leveling off at pre covid trend, as personal income growth fades with expiring fiscal support: Fading as federal unemployment comp is being eliminated in several states. By labor day it all expires: Still falling back: