Mosler Economics

Personal income has remained elevated for the entire recession due to fiscal policy,and with the supplemental federal unemployment insurance is set to expire by Labor Daypersonal income will fall accordingly:

Claims continue to drift lower but are still about double what they were pre covid: Continued claims are also about double pre covid levels: Fell back some and still below pre covid highs.This chart is not adjusted for inflation: Same pattern of recent weakness: Pending home sales in the US surged 51.7 percent year-on-year in April of 2021, the biggest increase ever amid a low base effect from last year when sales sank at a record pace because of the pandemic. All four US...

More signs of stagnation:

A lot of people collecting unemployment benefits. Most is gone by labor day: Another hint at a softening: Carbon footprints on the rise but still well below pre covid levels:

Moving back down to pre covid levels: Like the other surveys, this can be misleading as it shows the % of businesses showing increases, regardless of the magnitude of the increases: The commodity spike may be reversing?

Coming down, but still a lot of people collecting benefits:( Counter to what the Fed believes, the 0 rate policy has a damping effect on growthand inflation due to the income interest paid by the Treasury to the economy, andalso due to forward pricing effects. So far, the increase in gov deficit spending has about offset the decrease in private sectordeficit spending. Nor do I see much more in the way of Federal deficit spending asthe infrastructure bill seems to be both...

Before Covid, employment growth had already been decelerating due to the tariffs,which continue under President Biden: Births keep falling, and this is not population adjusted: Looks like real estate activity is settling in at pre crisis muddle through levels:

Goods are a much smaller component than services: Improving:

Doesn’t look like much of a housing boom here: China had been expanding: GDP is rising but still has a long way to go:

With consumption as weak as it is, the latest fiscal adjustment probably won’t put much upward pressure on prices: