Mosler Economics

Business precautionary draw downs of lines of credit caused the spike, followed by a contraction as operational needs contract: Growth in real estate loans is slowing: Consumer borrowing dropped with the stimulus checks and then has flattened: Pause, recovery, and then a leveling off:

The gap closed but at a slower rate indicating the extent to which the economy remains subdued 6 months into the crisis: Interesting- never seem gov sharply procyclical like this:

Same large dip partial recover story: Down a bit but still way high this many months after the initial surge:

Growth has been working it’s way lower for a long time: Not much of a recovery here: Total orders for the last several months are way down:

Settling down as fiscal transfers subside, but still elevated: Income falling faster than consumption is growing: Real Personal Income less Transfer Payments Transfer payments decreased by $70 billion in July, but were still $1.7 trillion (on SAAR basis) above the February level. Most of the increase in transfer payments – compared to the level prior to the crisis – is now from unemployment insurance. However, there will be sharp decline in unemployment insurance in...

Still over 1million new claims last week. This is seriously bad: They had already leveled off well before the collapse: As the carpenter said about his piece of wood:‘No matter how much I cut off it’s still too short.’They still have the interest rate thing backwards: Testing is down as are new cases, just like the President said:

Falling off again: After a typical precautionary draw down of credit lines, business loan growth turned and remains negative: Total bank credit has gone flat: Consumer borrowing is down, partly because of fiscal policy, and partly due to reduced spending: Real estate lending has slowed, but not by a whole lot:

Demand for petrol products dropping with the end of unemployment comp: Back up over 1 million new claims last week. Relapse underway without immediate fiscal adjustments: This leading indicator remains seriously depressed:

Looks like at best it’s going sideways: Bad!!! The Japanese economy shrank 7.8 percent on quarter in the three months to June 2020, compared with market forecasts of a 7.6 percent decline, and after a 0.6 percent fall in the previous period, a preliminary estimate showed. This was the third straight quarter of contraction and the steepest on record, amid the severe impact of the COVID-19 crisis. Private consumption (-8.2 percent vs -0.8 percent in Q1), capital expenditure...

Remains depressed and had been slowing for several years: Seems back on track due to unemployment comp, etc. which has recently expired: Familiar pattern: